"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Tuesday, February 23, 2016

Showers Today - Storms Some Strong/Severe Possible Wednesday Before Cold Air Moves In


TODAY: Weak impulse has been moving north and east from far SW Florida since before day break. Plenty of cloud cover and some showers associated with this activity as can be seen below. 

Expect that at least in part some of this activity will approach Central and East Florida by mid-afternoon. Showers could begin to pop up randomly almost any where in isolated fashion. At this point thunder not really anticipated but it is possible mainly just west of I-95 toward US1 from Brevard County and north but the main thrust will be showers.  Blog will run 'conservative' on the thunder chances today not to so it is not possible though in an even broader area than shown below.

Warm today with highs in the upper 70Fs through lower 80Fs. Might be a mid-80F but cloud cover would mitigate that potential.

WEDNESDAY: Over night tonight there is a threat of Severe Weather in The Florida Panhandle mainly from near Tallahassee and west. Latest HRRR suggests the chance of a Significant Tornado in this area or at least at good 'chance' of severe weather.

By well after midnight toward mid-morning activity associated with the front might dwindle quite a bit but then begin to ramp up again mid-late morning. Wind SW and gusty and quite warm especially from I-4 and south with highs in the mid 80Fs possible.T

Though any storm chances at time actually have been showing per NAM guidance to be rather slim to none, the wind/temperature atmospheric profiles suggest that any storm that can form could be at least marginally severe toward severe almost anywhere. The 'red risk' zone is chosen as this is the region of best 'stacked wind' profiles from the low to upper atmospheric levels.

Taking the 'worst case scenario' little change was made from yesterday's post . Again, there is always the chance that there will be very little activity as most of the energy with the associated low pressure system will have lifted well north of Florida heading toward the Northeast States.

As noted previously, if possible might want to watch news tonight but more so have a local channel ready for live coverage should conditions warrant after 11AM tomorrow since chances are things could change quite a bit around mid-morning tomorrow any way in regard to what latest and later day models will show.

Most rain chances will end before dark Central Florida and more likely by around 4:30PM on Wednesday.

THURSDAY-SUNDAY MORNING: Much colder and breezy especially Thursday with wind gradually tapering of with each day. 

Coldest morning appears will be Saturday morning still mainly iinland north of I4 though many areas will experience lower-mid 40Fs but upper 40Fs closer to the Central Florida East Coast and then further south. 

Gradual warm up Sunday afternoon toward upper 60Fs to near 70F but other days will struggle to get much above 65F if even that. 

One or two days might barely eke out 60F but again, not sure the GFS model can be trusted in the high temperature forecast given the time of year as the sun angle is increasing bit by bit every day and days are getting longer noticeably.

MONDAY - MIDWEEK: Another storm system approaching toward the 3RD, and so far not looking to be a ' sig.' weather maker though given little change in the large scale synoptic scale 'rhythms' would not be surprised to see at least 2 more severe weather threats in the next 2 weeks.

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