"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Tuesday, December 15, 2015

Near Record Warmth through Thursday Night & Then Christmas Eve (At First Glance)

72F at Sunrise  - Cape Canaveral Tuesday Morning
TODAY: Frontal Boundary has found it's final resting place across North Central Florida this afternoon where greater cloud cover exists along with some spotty light rain. The boundary will eventually lift back north as another front moves out of the Great Plains with its attendant surface low forming over Oklahoma toward Florida late Wednesday into Early Friday.

Dying Frontal Boundary Shown by Light Blue Dashed Line

Obvious to See Warmest Temperatures Today will be South of I-4 (Central and South Florida)
South of the front and away from the Clouds

TONIGHT: Much like last night in many areas of Central and South Florida. Chance of some fog again possible. It was fairly wide-spread this morning but not all areas experienced it.

WEDNESDAY: Temperatures in many areas will be much like today, but warmer toward I-4 and north as the old boundary lifts back north. Not much in the rain-fields showing in model data. Highs in the lower to mid-80Fs or about 8-12 degrees above climatic norms.

THURSDAY: Better chance of afternoon rain-showers as wind  becomes more Southwesterly in advance of the next front. Chance of near record highs along the east coast mainly south of I-4 toward Brevard/Indian River County south toward Ft Pierce contingent upon amount of cloud cover.

FRIDAY: Frontal Boundary  plowing down the state early through mid-day Friday passing through Central generally between 7AM - noon time. Chance that the warmest temperatures of the day will be experienced across North Central - Central within a few hours either side of sunrise with falling temperatures more assured (or holding steady) around the 1PM time frame as the full surge of drier air moves in. Gustier NW-NNW winds to move in with the cooler air. 

Morning 'day time highs' should be in the upper 60Fs range but could fall toward the mid-upper 50Fs nearer to I-4 and closer to the 58-62F mark across Central (and yet warmer south) by mid-afternoon accompanied by very gusty winds as skies eventually clear from north to south. Chance of light rain Central through about 9AM as a first best guess..then cloudy but with rapid clearing by 1pm on a line running from Cape Canaveral to Tampa Bay (for example). 

As can be seen below, per the morning GFS run the True Front of colder air moves in right at PEAK HEATING hours over Central Florida with rapid clearing. This could create quite a bit of mixing if the timing of the GFS is right making for gusting and very cool winds (air).  

Image shows Pre-frontal Boundary followed by the Drier Air ('green region) 3-5 hours later

SATURDAY: Coolest day round the clock. The warmest spot as winds start to swing around to being from the North should be near Beach-side at the Cape and South as shown below . This is the typically 'warmest spot' in the state when wind is from the North to just east of North in the winter. Lows away from the beaches in the mid-upper 40Fs but closer to low-mid 50Fs closer to the beaches. Much will depend though on how quickly the winds become more northerly. Often the GFS is too quick on the wind swinging around - and if so - the beaches north of Vero Beach might end up seeing something like a 'surprise 46F' reading . Highs on Saturday north of a Cocoa Beach to Tampa line might not reach 60F. But, changes are in the offing soon enough for overnight wind will swing just enough so that by...


SUNDAY MORNING: East coast temperatures near A1A south of The Cape never really drop off much after dark...with morning lows in the mid-upper 50Fs to near 60F. Sunday still looks to be a cool day though with highs in the mid-upper 60Fs but for South Florida.

MONDAY: Return toward 'Seasonal Norms' with lows in the upper 60Fs and highs in mid-70Fs once again but continued a bit breezy from a more easterly direction.

EXTENDED: Warming yet still to possible 'record highs' once again going into Mid-Week through Christmas Eve (Tuesday through Thursday). Next rain chance so far is being shown (after early Saturday) to be sometime late Christmas Day with the next front , but way too soon to say for now. Generally speaking..the outlook as of now for Central and South Florida is a  'Toasty Warm' Christmas Eve going into Christmas Day, no fireplace necessary.

A snowy Christmas Eve and Day appears in the offing for many mountainous areas along and west of the Continental Divide even into northern Arizona, The Four Corners Regions, the Inter-mountain Region near the Great Salt lake, and parts of Northern California.

Most snowfall Christmas Eve/Day should occur west of
the Continental Divide

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