"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Friday, March 2, 2012

BDoF Tornado Threat Far To Florida's North, Storms 'Possible' Early SundayCo

Cold front position forecast this afternoon with low pressure centered over Indiana. The area in orange is  'my personal annotation' for where very strong, tornadic (tornado producing) type thunderstorms with strong winds and damaging hail could most likely occur today. That area is most definitely not all inclusive as will be seen in the next graphic.
TODAY:  Big Danger on Friday (BDoF) - Dynamically powerful early March storm system and related cold front is driving across the Mississippi/Ohio  River Valley Basins today, while in Florida the weather is not unlike that of a peaceful, early April-time. This will be the case again tomorrow in Florida with even warmer temperatures. Sea Breeze east of I95 if not US1 I expect will manifest within the next hour (it is now 1:45pm, Friday). Highs in the mid 80Fs and lower 80Fs near the coast. No rain. 

Meanwhile, further to the north exceptional wind dynamics mainly are the core reason for generation of thunderstorms that start to rotate (likely as rain-showers and before even becoming thunderstorms) further north. Winds from accommodating directions for cyclonic rotation coupled with 'energy' and cold air aloft could generate strongly wind driven large hailstones and vortexes of wind energy in vertical columns, tornadoes. Some could be long tracking and quite strong. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) located in Norman, OK and likely ALL news networks in the most to be effected areas are heralding the alert for this potential. One can turn on The Weather Channel to keep up to date. In fact, as I type there are 5 tornado warnings in place over a part of the very large area of concern. See below:

This graphic is for the tornado 'risk' determined by where a plethora of weather conditions combine just right to result in rotating storms. This lavender area is matched up nicely with the core concern for this blog's purposes in the first image. This image is updated at scheduled times by SPC which also issues Watch Boxes. Warnings are issued by respective National Weather Service (NWS) offices in any area that such a storm is manifesting or already in progress, whether that storm is or is not in a previously issued 'watch box' . This graphic does not show the wind and hail risk as well, although for the most part they overlap. The tor risk is a smaller than the much large general severe weather risk area.

FLORIDA SATURDAY: Another day of warmth, possibly near record highs East Central from South Central toward Daytona Beach. No sea breeze and only a few clouds as the cold front moves into the SE states and the panhandle. The front will enter the panhandle slowly Saturday night with a chance of stronger storms in this location as well. I have made a 'personal edit' to the last issuance of the SPC day 2 outlook as can be seen here:

Based on 7AM morning model runs, there is a slight chance
of severe storms overnight Saturday into early Sunday per the official outlook area, The southern orange line  "could" be extended as far south as shown, but do not that is only a personal observation based on model trends. This is due to the strong wind fields the morning model runs are showing that the previous runs (on which the original graphic is based) did not quite show those winds.

SUNDAY: Very close model agreement that the front will cross Central from NNW-SSE between 5am to 10am (north to south)..and cross very close to Orlando around 7:30AM Sunday morning. Strong wind fields just above the deck could result in either thunder or simply rain with winds in the 45mph range at least if the morning model runs verify, especially on the east side of the state.  A very powerful jet stream wind departing just to the north of Florida will place all of the state in the 'left exit region' which add substantial lift to the atmosphere, and the latest models are showing winds at 2000 ft over 0ver 40knts exiting off the east coast from near Indian River County and north through 11AM or so.  Chance of rain dead central to begin close to 6AM and abating by 12pm time frame...with a possible thunder chance extending further south to the keys (not shown in the above image either).

The front will be close to the Keys by  2pm, with clearing over Central commencing around noon time and working south with time. Expecting dead central to clear rather rapidly near the 12:30pm - 1:30pm (already clear further north) time frame with brisk NW winds to follow and very cool temperatures. Believe afternoon highs will remain in the low-mid 50Fs most areas Central and North.

Do not be fooled by the high temperature forecast you might hear for Sunday. I suspect that temperature will occur very early near sunrise, and only fall through mid-afternoon from the time the front blasts through.
Sunday night lows in the low 50Fs immediate coast to mid-upper 40Fs inland and north as winds decrease overnight, but all in all it seems that temperatures far east central will fall then level off during the late afternoon and remain so through the night.

MONDAY: Much drier, sunny with light north winds and highs back toward the upper 60Fs to low 70Fs South but starting off very cool (mid 40Fs - mid 50Fs A1A corridor Canaveral and south). That was quick. A slightly elevated secondary boundary (part of that big storm system to the north) will skim by Monday night and with that passage and high pressure building rapidly behind it from the west north of the state winds to become NE by Tuesday morning and strengthen by mid to late morning. Thus end'eth any cold spell. 

TUESDAY-THURSDAY: At this point, guidance continues to build mounting high pressure to the north then northeast of the state with onshore winds continuing all 24 hours of day from the ENE-E by later Wednesday . 

Very 'temperate' temperatures near the cool ocean waters with little variation between day and night ...but warmer toward the west coast. Slight chance of light rain mainly east 1/2 of state if not only east of I95  late Tuesday and all of Wednesday.

BEYOND: Big discrepancy in morning model run from before. 

Previous runs showed this strong high pressure to hold tight for nearly one week with onshore winds continuing and a chance of clouds/showers. The latest run, however, brings another cold front toward Friday with a good rain chance. Ironically, though, it then commences with a similar weather pattern of strong onshore winds once again shortly after its passage. Thus, either way. it appears that from Over Night Saturday through all of next week at least we will be in for a bit of a 'atmospheric culture shock' in terms of how it will NOT be anything like the past few days have been. Good news though, little in cold air except for Sunday and then a few mornings west of I95 and toward the far interior and west side. 

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