"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Wednesday, June 24, 2015

Synoptic Scale Pattern Shift Could Bring Needed East Coast Rains At Last

Sunrise Skies (Looking West) Wednesday Morning
TODAY: Pattern shift advertised by the GFS model referred to in a previous post seems to be locking in with greater confidence as of the over night runs. A heat ridge (believe it is referred to as a Sonora Heat Ridge) to build over the Desert Southwest Region with rising heights as far north as Southern Canada with a response of falling 500mb heights to the east will result in 'Ridge to the west  -  trough over the East'. This will bring much cooler temperatures to many areas of the country but also for Florida change the storm steering currents closer to NORMAL for June and early July...finally.  

Heat to build over this weekend into early next week (shown is around the 5000 ft level AGL)
Note the winds over Florida at that level by then are from the west at 15kts

The Response higher up at 20,000 ft is winds from the west at 15-20 knots as well

Today: A bit unexpectedly a weak mid level low pressure circulation of sorts has formed over Southern to Central Georgia. This will result in a very weak mid level flow from the west toward the east today, but so weak the change will barely be discernible for most, especially people that are inland. 

For the east coast, this might encourage late day (mostly early evening) cloud cover to increase, with a nudge of the sea breeze collision perhaps another 10 miles further toward the east than yesterday in various locations along the north south line running down the state. Strongest storms would be late after 6:pm from western Osceola County and north through or near the Ocala region toward Gainesville or even east of that line perhaps over toward the Suwanee River Basin 

Another 'hot spot' could be closer toward Sanford eventually depending on how far inland the east coast sea breeze has made it. Slight chance some activity could work back toward the east coast after dark north of SR 50 as light rain.

BEYOND: Not much change tomorrow but Friday there is a chance that steering might favor even more toward the east side as a large and powerful Heat Ridge builds over the Desert Southwest Region as noted in the above images (which were depictions for the Monday  next week time frame).

Heat Ridges can be very stubborn to break down...combined with the trough over the East as shown steering aloft will increase from west to east. There is a chance that by Saturday or Sunday through Tuesday a sea breeze on the east side will be hard to come by north of Ft Pierce or Melbourne. If so that would or could mean very warm at the coast but a decreased chance of rains as well without the added boost of a sea breeze collisions. Time will tell, as that is still a bit too far out in time.

Otherwise, by mid-week next week the ridge is expected to lift north more from well to the south which will weaken steering and allow sea breezes to work their magic, with the ridge axis across Florida then oscillating somewhere between mainly Central to South Central for an extended period. 

This would be the first time this summer that storms will not be continuously shoved to the left side of the state for a large percentage of the time. East coast could finally get some needed rains is the short and long of it.

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