"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Friday, January 30, 2015

Good News on The Weather Front

"While the Northeast U.S. Was in the Processes of Being Buried Under Inches of Snow ....."

...a barefoot walk on the beach was in order to celebrate the occasion.

TODAY: Cold front to cross the state through the day. The good news for east coasters?  This boundary is marking the leading edge of a pattern shift!  And?  As a result, after cold frontal passage there is high pressure building in behind it juxtaposition-ed as such that morning lows from the Cape South will be WARMER than the past several mornings.

Highs today will be across the 70Fs regime mainly south of I-4 or even from around Titusville to Tampa Bay and south with lower through upper 60Fs further north, partially restricted due to cloud cover ahead of and along the boundary. Satellite imagery is even a bit deceiving as the front is not even along what looks a bit "like"  a rope cloud which would demarcate  the frontal boundary. (note area over the Gulf west of Ocala)

SATURDAY: Cooler all areas as a result of the boundary with highs mainly across the 60Fs per guidance. Didn't look into what the cloud coverage would be but GFS shows a rapid moisture recovery at least at the lowest levels likely from onshore component flow. Wind though will pick up from the NE - ENE with time so   could feel a bit cool in the afternoon along the beaches especially north of Cape Canaveral as shelf waters have really cooled off the past few weeks with winds in the 12-20mph range. 

Thus, Saturday looks 'less than stellar' but far from what could be had this been a "Cold Air Intrusion of the Third Kind".

"Rare Frosty Morning in Cape Canaveral" - December 2010

SUNDAY: Another front will be approaching on Monday with winds becoming more Southeast to south and eventually Southwest on Monday. Highs mainly in the 70Fs with increasing clouds but not overly-cloudcast.


MONDAY: Possibly the warmest day in a while, with highs south of I-4 running through the 70Fs and maybe some lower 80Fs further south. Storms possible across the Panhandle with chance of rains further south and east into early Tuesday. Cloud cover an issue though.

TUESDAY: The pattern shift more evident now as a similar position of high pressure behind the boundary is spelling out rapid air mass recover with quick onshore return flow moderating temperatures with maybe one cooler day and then back to HARD CORE 70Fs. But cooler at the east coast beaches north of West Palm. Life's tough. 

Cold front later Tuesday could bring rains and thunder (pan-handle) .

BEYOND: Hesitations begin in this realm of time. GFS is like shifting sands on a Teutonic plate in regard to future-casts.  At one point it was showing possibly the coldest statewide days yet around February 15th but now it has shifted that out to the extra-terrestrial time zone (ETZ) of 385 hours out, which is even way beyond the LTZ (LaLa-Land Time Zone ) for model accuracy. 

The only more assured chance of rain other than maybe a sprinkle today northern parts appears to come around later Tuesday/Wednesday with the next boundary where the GFS is showing a repeat performance of the wind and temperature fields to follow that boundary similar to today's performance. 

For now will go with it just because it looks nice and tired of this unacceptably cold  "below 73F in the afternoon" regime at some locations; though, it's not often a good thing to base a forecast on one's feelings, which odd as it might sound, might actually occur at times in some unofficial circles.

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