Today: Hurray! A change is in place. This became apparent last night as can be seen in the radar image from around 11:30pm. This cluster of storms moved north with a trend of working toward the coast; however, it died across the burial grounds of unworthy storms (i.e. the swamps).
Set-Up: Upper level ridge that has been elongated across the Deep South will sink south and be almost right across us today. This is in response to a large upper level trough that is digging down the Belt Ways of Alabama and West Georgia. It can be noted that it is this same trough that will steer Tropical Cyclone Bill into the Netherlands of the Atlantic Ocean as a 'fish storm', although the folks up in Nova Scotia might want to have their casting nets ready just in case. Since the ridge will be over us today..if not a hair line fracture to the south, we will lose the pesky ESE to SE steering flow that's been plaguing us for so long. In essence it's going to seem a lot like the "June Days of Summer" the next 3 days, particularly Saturday and Sunday.
So what gives?: Good question. The ridge snaps right down the middle leaving the majority out in the Atlantic for Bill to deal with while the rest takes its sabbatical in the Gulf of Mexico as the trough drops right in between the two and gives us a nice pat on the head...in the form of SW-WSW steering flow. Too boot, Bill will be leaving his tailing trough to fill in the gap where the ridge departed. A nice, moist tail at that too.
But there's a fly in my soup!: Yep, it's called "warm air aloft". This "mourn"ing's sounding does reveal that to be true, but I don't think it will be so much as to inhibit convection completely. The other thing to consider is subsidence both just to the south of the base of the 500mb trough as well as in the periphery of Bill's umbrella.That is today and most of tomorrow. Look for some bubbly Cu by noon and isolated showers by 1-2pm with storms over the interior and approaching the I-95 corridor in earnest by 4-5pm. Maybe we'll squeeze one out even closer to the coast either early in the afternoon or after 5pm.
The Weekend is looking more hopeful. Bill will have pulled far enough away and the trough will have dug a smidgen further south opening up the flood gates for SW Flow aloft while maintaining a high probability of a seabreeze pinned to the coast. Best chances for storms at this time seems to be east CENTRAL Florida for a change too. We're due. Looks like we may be gust fronted at least twice in the course of the next 5 days. So I'm cleaning off the lens and putting some fresh memory sticks in the camera. I wonder if I'll ever use the rest of the film in that camera. It's probably decayed by now.
Monday: Back to the dog days of August and the same old song and dance. Unpredictabe weak tropical waves. However! There's hints of a fairly strong one evolving just to the north of the Bahamas by mid week.