"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Saturday, June 24, 2017

Showers/Storms Possible Mainly Well Inland Central/North Central (with a caveat)

June 23, 2014 Cape Canaveral
TODAY: Slowly approaching a more summer-like pattern in the 'storm arena' today. Surface ridge axis is pulling a bit off to the east of Central Florida and dropping a bit south as well during the course of the day.  This was immediately notable over night as wind at the surface picked up from the south (rather than from the east as it has been the past few days).

 Conditions unfavorable for showers/storms most areas to start the day but this will quickly change going into early afternoon  from west to east as moisture at the necessary level creeps back into frame .  Better chances or earlier day convective showers appears to be running along a line about 50 miles north of I-4 earlier today and south toward Sarasota. 

In fact if the latest RAP analysis has any credence, there is a very poor chance of anything but low topped showers anywhere over the entire peninsula south of a line running from near Brooksville northeast toward St Augustine as or 9AM.

Steering is from the SW but extremely weak and net affect of it will be almost nil. Thus, apparent storm 'motions' today will be inland along sea breeze/outflow/and lake boundaries.

Earlier activity 'anticipated' further north as noted could set up a secondary boundary a bit further south toward I-4 by late day.  Temperatures aloft remain warm today per models but the early morning KSC sounding says otherwise at around -8.5C for 500mb at least; on the other hand the 700mb temperature came in a nearly impenetrable +11C for updrafts. Further investigation of the Miami and Tampa soundings shows that they too are showing a very warm 11C and very dry above that level. All in all, that would spell out mostly 'showers' at best (or worst, depending on how one looks at it) for the entire day unless something can change 'rather drastically'.

All in all, will give the benefit of the doubt during this time of transition and stick with the chance for some thunder very late today toward early evening when sea breezes and random boundaries work their magic.

SUNDAY: Earlier guidance wasn't showing much of a difference for today though the situation is different. The Atlantic Ridge axis by now having pulled away from the state is replaced by one stretching across Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and breaching across North Central Florida.  Have seen this before in past summers, and when it does occur the storm coverage is meager at best. But will the same hold true this time?  

The over all affect is for similar conditions with little to no steering aloft is what model guidance implies. As usual in summer, things will likely change in the guidance by tomorrow as even the latest GFS of the 2AM run shows more coverage and closer to the east coast (mainly Central and North Central/North) southwest toward Naples than it has in previous runs.

MONDAY: Frontal boundary will be near I10 later in the day to work southward as advertised in previous post. The big change from that post is that the boundary is no longer forecast to get hung up near the FL/GA border but rather make it's way into Central Florida.

Noting, this 'boundary' is more of the leading edge of high pressure building east and south from the Deep South region rather than a bona-fide 'front' by the time it gets to Central Florida.

In any case, increasing moisture pooled within the remnant boundary as it undergoes frontalysis should lead to good coverage of showers and storms on Monday mainly in from the immediate coast except north of the Cape where some activity might be able to work or even propagate offshore the east coast. More cloud cover this day as well, especially by later in the day many areas.

TUESDAY: This day is 'up for grabs in the region of Central Florida and north depending on how fast the high pressure area builds east and south and just how expansivee it will be. The GFS is oscillating from run to run in either have the leading edge or 'the front' make it through Central well before noon time, whereas other runs old off until around sunset. This will be an integral factor on where it will thunder/rain on Tuesday. 

If it holds off a bit there is a  good chance of thunder Central Florida, even at the coast from Sebastian and north, but if it presses south faster than expected (which is possible) chances are greatly diminished. Temperatures aloft his day should be cooler as well, or at least are thought will be, which could yield some stronger storms. For now will go with strong storms Southwest Florida (Tampa and south).

BEYOND: Regardless of what occurs with the 'boundary' , traces of it are consistently show to lay across North Central Florida or Central more or less for another day or two. The overall scheme will be 'easterly flow' as the high pressure builds across to the north of the state in which means all thunder will be limited to the west side of the state for the remainder of the week. 

On the other hand, with ample moisture in place we could see showers even at the coast at almost anytime but most likely manifesting either over night or during the mid-morning to noon time hours before working inland along the east coast sea breeze.

How long this easterly flow pattern will remain is uncertain. Hints that it will last until around Saturday are showing up when another mid-upper level trough and associated frontal boundary works across the mid-Atlantic states which would in turn  shift the steering  from east to west to more of one being from south to north and eventually favor the east side of the state more so come the Sunday , Monday or as late as Tuesday time frame.

TROPICS: No tropical threats foreseen and likely will remain of little concern at least until around the last week of July. Investigation of historical records shows there have been a very low number of named tropical system in 'recorded history' to hit Florida prior to July 24 (in July); any that did were weak.

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