"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Thursday, June 7, 2012

Periodic Showers and Some Storms Through Friday

Radar around 8:15AM EDT shows activity moving from WSW to ENE already as anticipated. Two Fronts are seen here, with the southern one more of a surface trough as a reflection of what is going on aloft in the mid levels
TODAY: Captions capture the essence of today, with neither boundary moving much more than perhaps 20-30 miles one way or the other north/south. As such, would expect most of the rain to be near and in between those boundaries.

Latest short term trends show that south Florida is being dry slotted in the mid-levels simultaneously under extensive high clouds (moisture) and lower clouds. This would normally be a situation for strong storms if not for the high clouds (with the moisture present there and at low levels), but with little focusing mechanisms other than perhaps an afternoon sea breeze, would need to watch the east side toward Southern Palm Beach County through the Largo Area.

Otherwise, fairly close model agreement that the bulk of rainfall today will occur between the orange arrows.  There could be some stronger storms in the areas in Yellow, but those were more or less picked out on a mass-random whim based on periodic wind field surges depicted by so called, "guidance".

Any of these could 'go', and if so, most but not necessarily so would do it between 2pm -6:30pm.  The NE corner of the state in particular and East Central.  All in all, we could see a few severe warnings today, particular in that time frame last noted, with the primary threat being strong wind and frequent CG (cloud to ground) lightning, but the chance of a waterspout is not totally out of the question.

FRIDAY: The northern Frontal Boundary has been forecast to sink south toward Central where the current boundary exists. might just wash out and the southern one will become the one and only dominant player. Either way, all of Central to Tampa north and south 60 to 70 miles either side should be in the rain chance swath zone beginning early morning through sunset. Showers could occur over night as well, but very isolated.

BEYOND: Not a whole lot of change in reasoning other than one issue. Without going into naming models as that is irrelevant for posting purposes, they are split on what happens to the front on how far south it will get. This can be imagined because of the already new boundary near Central which might have thrown two of them off. Based on consistency and trends of the GFS though combined with the time of year, the  'new' front or what is left of it will sink a bit further south toward Vero Beach by overnight Friday night into Saturday. Wind behind the boundary will be light easterly north of its location but shallow, and possibly not strong enough to offset steering of showers and storms back eastward. The boundary will be , as it looks now tilted from near Cedar Key SW toward Ft Pierce area..with rains either side once again.  Saturday in Sunday looks like a shift in the timing issues, sticking closer to afternoon and night activity, but we'll have to wait and see. In this example though, it would be a sliver from North Brevard NNW toward Tallahassee that would have the least chance of rain.

 GREAT BEYOND: The trend has been for moisture to 'hang around', enough for rain in the forecast  the whole way out to next weekend at the rate we are going now. That does not mean all days will be as we have been seeing recently though. It will likely take on a different character of 'symptomatic flavor' from the atmospheric shift . 

Monday/Tuesday time frame could see heavier early to mid afternoon through evening storms nearly statewide, with less high level cloud cover to start the day. This will much depend though on what happens on Saturday into Sunday with the supposed positioning of the front which will wash out during that time frame.  Strange state of affairs going on this year as we enter the wet season by mid-June, considering the current pattern is unusual right now for what is oft referred to a small circles as the 'convective season'.

Before we know it, it could be time for a moisture surge from the Caribbean of different nature before this pattern even clears itself out come around 12-15th of June. Which would harbor a more wet-season like regime of afternoon and evening stormage just in time, but who would know the difference?

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