"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Friday, March 22, 2013

Strong to Severe Storms Possible Saturday and Sunday

FRIDAY NOON: It appears a warm front is starting to form across Central Florida as of early afternoon. This boundary will lift north later today through tonight to the Florida/Georgia Border. Chances of isolated showers and maybe some thunder across the Southern 1/3 of Florida although cloud cover will likely result in only showers for the most part
TODAY: Several changes taking place today through Sunday Night. A warm front is forming across Central Florida which will lift north later today and tonight. The better moisture mostly coming in from the west and south will most affect the Southern 1/3 of the state. Meanwhile a low pressure area is forming toward East Texas. That system will drag a cold front across Central Florida Late Sunday.

In the meantime, easterly winds will become more Southeast with time and south to SW by Saturday. Possible fog over night in some areas or light rain as the warm front lifts north.

SATURDAY: A weak low will form along the warm front which will be into South Georgia by noon time. That low could start to move toward the east and result with daytime heating in a pseudo pre-frontal trough which would act as a mechanism of convergence down at least the northern 1./3 of the state. Greater instability anticipated across North Central, while wind fields could set up for the potential of severe weather north of I-4 and much more possible along the I-10 especially at and west of Tallahassee, although the area from Gainesville toward JAX might need to bear this closely in mind.

SATURDAY AFTER 2PM: Daytime heating and some of the best instability we've seen across Florida for many months now combined with better moisture fields and shearing winds both directionally and with speed, although not truly significant but combined with very cold air aloft could result in some isolated stronger storms across a part of Central Florida, but more likely near and north of I-4. This is noted near and north of the orange line in the image below. 

SUNDAY has been the better day as it appears for Severe weather , but there is a chance that for Central it will occur on "the day before the day". Wouldn't be the first time so does bear watching in the next two to three model runs and then in short term model runs and analysis as Saturday evolves to see if perhaps Saturday doesn't throw a few surprise curve balls. Cloud cover could shoot down the potential quite easily. The image below shows this area and another for Sunday.

Severe Chances best this weekend north of the red line with a  secondary area on Saturday north of the orange line. On Sunday the better areas to watch are between the purple lines. Further south, this part of Florida will not likely see the best extent of wind fields nor instability as the line of activity will enter this region for the most part well after peak heating (assuming there is not already cloud cover)
PALM SUNDAY: Another shot of rain storms , thunder some strong over North Central and parts of Dead Central if not South Central as well though not shown in the image above. Noting that the NAM model is quite sparse on precipitation for the most part the entire weekend, so this could all equate to a Bust-cast Fail mode Flop-ation Surmise-orama based on the GFS, but based on discussions from official outlets who have better access to a detailed ECMWF (European) model, a play on the push-for-rain seems to be the best option at this point. Winds SW/breezy and warm especially south of I-4 with highs in the lower-mid 80Fs assuming cloud coverage is not too extensive.

MONDAY-THURSDAY: Much cooler with near cold mornings where frost might end up being possible from Lake County and north, but the immediate east coast as usual from the Cape and South along A1A to the Keys will escape the worst of the worst of it. Some very cool afternoons will return as well with highs in the 60Fs on Monday and Tuesday (if not Wednesday as well). 

EASTER OUTLOOK: So far, it looks to be quite warm on Easter with another system perfectly timed to be on the approach. SW winds and warm.

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