"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Tuesday, October 2, 2012

Showers, Some Thunder, In and Out Clouds Through Sunset

As Can Be Seen at 1:30pm, cloud cover is offsetting destabilization of the atmosphere
to some degree today, yet east of that frontal boundary now nearly stationary, the air
mass over all is nearly uniform and quite moist. Lack of boundaries / good trigger but  an analyzed vorticity max near the SE Coast  may set off a chain reaction of Northeast bound showers and thunder increasing in number and strength especially after 3pm from South and South Central Florida (primarily). 

TODAY: Frontal boundary as shown is a bit joined at the hip with an inverted trough of low pressure coming off the Yucatan. That trough is part of a very broad area of weak low pressure across all of the Caribbean extending into the far SW Gulf.  The air mass east of that boundary is fairly uniform, with poor low level lapse rates due to early day clouds and warm mid-level temperatures making for unfavorable early start on the stormage action. Regardless, if we can get more of the high clouds out of here, Deep Layer Convergence is showing up south and over the Big Lake, and with steering toward the Northeast at around 20-25kts (possibly)..changes could be forthcoming toward mid-afternoon in the form of showers and some thunder especially north of the Lake and more so into Osceola, Indian River, Brevard, Seminole and Southern Volusia Counties from around 3pm until 8pm., especially if the Lake Shadow plays into the action.  Winds gusts in and near the showers or thunder could be strong, even in only rain showers but those cases if any will be isolated at best.  Activity should have not much of a problem moving swiftly offshore with lingering cloud cover through sunset as some lighter rain patches persisting should the convective wheels get set in motion during the next hour or so.

WEDNESDAY: The boundary could advance a bit more toward the SE as moisture continues further north by that time over-riding the boundary. In that regard, the better rain chances tomorrow could be further north and west,, but overall other than some cosmetic low level wind direction changes the mid-upper levels do not change all that much other than that the wind speeds in those levels begin to lower.

THURSDAY-WEEKEND: The boundary by Thursday appears will be all but gone, but moisture persists making for difficult to time rain shower chances, although this could end up being a diurnal cycle showers scenario for the east coast in the early morning shifting west and north during the day time, but not exclusively so.

A frontal boundary is going to be coming together across the Central Portion of the country, but just exactly how or when that boundary will cross Central Florida and the remainder of the state is uncertain considering current timing suggests well out to Monday of next week.  In that regard rain chances, although nothing significant is foreseen, remain in the picture up until that time frame. Only the direction from which they come from changes.

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