"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Sunday, August 7, 2011

Some Strong Storms Far East Central Late Today, Hot Along A1A

First daylight image available of "Emily" this Sunday Morning. Animation clearly shows a motion toward the ENE-NE. Also  visible in the image was hazy (milky) like air south of Emily. There is an upper level, TUTT low analyzed by models approaching the Southern Bahamas extending East and South. (See colored captions)..with a Saharan Air Layer (SAL) in toe. The dynamic due..abolishers of anything Tropically Stormy in Nature.

TD Emily: To cut to the Tropical Chase first off today, TD Emily is moving toward the ENE-NE this morning as could be seen on satellite animation. It is clearly visible. In its wake is a weak 500mb low NE of the Bahamas responsible for some of the higher cirrus clouds over SE Florida up toward Melbourne. Those should clear out during the course of the late morning to early afternoon. I do not think Emily will strengthen to a Storm, but if it does it would be sub-tropical as it is merging with a trough that pulled off the NE states several days ago...and likely why it seems to be accelerating in forward motion. There is also shearing winds along its projected path. So, if it is named again, it's a matter of semantics...if not who happens to be on shift at the Hurricane Center at the time.

Outside of that storm, we have a strong TUTT (Tropical Upper Level Tropospheric Trough) moving in south of Emily....This TUTT can be see below:

WHOOPS. This is actually just its mask. An actual image is hard to come by,
because like all TUTT lows SHOULD be, this one is mummified, and shrouded in dust. However, the King
might protect us (United States) for sometime from tropical Systems

 As figures, Tutankhamun was the result of a incestuous relationship and, because of that, may have suffered from several genetic defects that contributed to his early death. For years, scientists have tried to unravel ancient clues as to why the boy king of Egypt, who reigned for 10 years, died at the age of 18. Several theories have been put forth; one was that he was killed by a blow to the head. Another put the blame on a broken leg. As recently as June 2010, German scientists said they believe there is evidence he died of sickle cell disease

 However, I have discovered these Boy Kings of the Atlantic Ocean that prevent tropical storm formation and hinder thunderstorms are terrorists...trying to rule a time and place that would normally have rains and storms. This king's death was probably an assault from a stronger arch enemy, an Upper Level Trough from the Great North Territories...the poor sickle celled lad with a broken leg, who probably came from a dysfunctional family never had a chance.

However, I was able to come up with a more recent image now that I dig back:
WHAT THE HECK IS THIS MESS?!!!! Leave it to rulers to screw with the "System"..hey, happens with the National Budget all the time...what we have here, is the tropics being in DEBT of moisture.

No big deal. This (above) shows "Emily" East of Ft. Pierce (although on satellite it now appears to be East of Titusville)...the orange is the TUTT himself...looks like the mummy has turned to dust. Actually, the RED is SAL dust!...Huh? Now there's TUTT and SAL?..SAL is Saharan Air Layer, TUTT's partner in tropical crime protection. The two keep tropical systems away from where ever they are located.  The white, bright line shows the forecast direction of motion of Emily..white as a Emily is...Looks about right so far. The yellow line labeled "20" is Shear of 20 knts...This is why I do not think Emily should be renamed..too much shear.

And now for the bigger Tropical Picture:

In purple is the BIG SAL/TUTT (the TUTT itself is not shown, only this shown in the first image)..The green areas are tropical waves..all of them WEAK...The GFS is bringing one of them..probably one of those last a hurricane into Brownsville Texas in about 15 days..but point can see why there is no tropical worries as more dry air is in the offing...but this could change in 48 this will continuously need to be monitored. Any dissolving of the mummified dust could change things around pretty quickly...and there's no shortage of energy trying to tap into moist air

FLORIDA WEATHER: To cut to the chase, no change in thinking of previous days..even 4 days ago the GFS has had the pattern nailed and little has changed. Sunday-Thursday (and possibly now Friday). Ridge across the Florida Straits toward Cuba and trough moving , building actually, into the SE will be accompanied by the first GASP! cold front of the 'season'..what season is that? Just normal summer so far I think. It's been a while since one has moved through the NE states. Remember all the heat there? Looking for highs in higher terrain later in the week maybe only in the upper 60Fs..with some 70Fs elsewhere. The front is expected to make it to Southern Georgia if not North Florida in about 4 days..then wash out. Flow will be from the WSW-WNW each that will be the crux of each day's post. That, and the amount of moisture...and the determination of it there will be an east coast sea breeze.

Other than those factors, the other factor will be afternoon high temperatures and heat indices along the A1A corridor from JAX-MIA. Believe that RECORD HIGHS will be set..with some days seeing highs in the mid-upper 90Fs..HOWEVER, this will never be proven, since no official reporting stations which keep these records are located along A1A! In addition, other than Patrick Air Force Base who reports in hourly...who can prove the Heat Indices? It is possible that A1A might be WARMER on some days than some locations in the interior...except perhaps on the lee of Lake Okeechobee. Why would these be records? Because we always have a Sea Breeze in August along A1A...which keeps this area cooler than inland. These temperatures might not be 'exceptionally hot'..but with the summer humidity in place..Heat Indices could vary from has been indicated at PAFB and on my home station well as one just 2 miles to my south...  So for today...

TODAY: Not really going to go too in-depth today since the state is in recovery mode of Emily's Haunt...the Ghost has moved is now time for ReBirth...rather...recovery. Central and South Florida are recovering...South more-so than Central..but barely....

...Believe storms/showers should form along the west coast sea breeze and build east with time. Flow is only about 10 mph..15 mph over North Florida and parts of North Central...since motion is pretty slow, but steady...outflows from the stronger activity after 1pm might advance the west coast sea breeze a bit faster, especially South Florida and North Florida. Believe this will give Central Florida..mainly from Oak Hill toward Ft Pierce to receive a late day (after 3:30pm)  sea breeze which will remain along US1 (or SR 3 even?).. or between US1 and I-95 in North Brevard. Thus, peak heating will have been reached, so there will be no cooling effect at peak heating..only just after it. High's along A1A 93F -97F. But who can prove it? Like stated, there's no stations that report along A1A other than PAFB. North of Oak Hill, there might not be a sea breeze at all.

Thus: I pulled out the crayolas and came up with this after connecting the dots:

POSSIBLY, stronger storms in Brevard, Indian River, St Lucie, Martin...or Palm Beach County due to late day sea breeze or the Lake Shadow (SE Florida) . Could be some squirrely mechanisms at play near Ft. Lauderdale as well.

**NOTE: Although not sketched in, I'm also watching for the possibility of another, secondary area very close to Daytona to Ormond Beach. This area might actually receive a vorticity max late today..totally unrelated to normal summer time fare. But just where that will be, if it even is, could be as far north as Ormond/JAX or as far south as Titusville. Thus, if big storms form along this area in the absence of a sea breeze, that is why. Showers, light rain could linger mostly over Brevard County until mid-evening.

MONDAY-THURSDAY: More of the daily grind, figuring out where moisture, sea breeze development, etc..will occur. In general, the East Coast is favored for the mid-afternoon to early evening storms..although on at least one day they could start up as soon as 11AM to noon. We might be able to through Friday into the mix.

Also, the SAL associated with TUTT might begin to reduce rain chances, mainly for the Keys and extreme Southern Dade or inland Monroe counties by Wednesday...otherwise, it is expected to persist for quite some time. This might be why the GFS is leaving tropical entities far away from the state...but again, that could change quickly over a 48 hour period.

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