"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Thursday, December 29, 2016

Near Record Highs Far East Central - Much Colder Friday / Rapid Turn Around Sunday

Sunrise Thursday, December 29, 2016, Cocoa Beach

TODAY: Cold front  - associated with Winter Storm Fortis now in the formative stages just near the coast of Virginia which will lift north to north-northeast and strengthen - is currently draped  near the Florida / Georgia Border having already pushed through the Western Panhandle where temperatures are falling through the 60Fs with a brisk NW wind. 

Meanwhile well south of the front toward I-4 and south, the entire day light hours will be spent ahead of the boundary  which marks the leading edge of  colder/drier air spilling southward.  Looks like areas south of I-4 will mainly see an  increase in cloud cover toward sunset and possibly a rain-shower after dark, with better rain chances north of I-4.

FRIDAY: Regardless , the wind shift associated with this incoming cold front should press across North Central to South Central between the hours of 8PM - 11PM or so, and be very close to a Canaveral to South Tampa Bay line near 9:15PM tonight. Wind will shift to NW and be gusty at times and quickly begin to dry out, but the temperature drop so far does not appear to be "Rapid" though will be noticeable immediately.  

Morning lows most areas south of I-4 will see mid-upper 40Fs with lower 50Fs from the Cape and and South nearer the immediate east coast , mainly east of US1.  So far the coldest low I've seen in Canaveral this 'fall-winter' season is around 51F-52F ish at my location, and this one so far does not look like it will get colder than that, if even. However, wind will be gusting through the early morning hours into the mid afternoon and slowly begin to wane late in the day Friday making it feel a bit too cool for splashing at the shore.

Due to the timing of the front and peak hours of cold air advection being during day time hours , Friday might be the all around coolest day yet regardless though, with afternoon highs north of Canaveral to Tampa line barely ekeing out of the upper 50Fs range, and if so only for a brief period of time. Coupled with a good breeze and gusts, it won't exactly be 'beach weather' tomorrow.

SATURDAY (NEW YEAR'S EVE): This day will see much lighter wind as the associated high pressure area building in behind the front will be at its nearest proximity, though north of the state. 

Thus, probably won't see 'prime radiational cooling coupled with drainage flow at play, but rather favoring the NW Quadrant of the state for the coldest air, even toward freezing near the I-10 and possibly colder pockets south toward Ocala.  

The immediate east coast will be similar to the previous morning but with much less wind baring any change in the circumstances which would bring old mercury down even lower. 

It's a wait and see thing. Regardless , by afternoon this day could be nearly 10F degrees warmer than Friday as the wind begins to swing to the east and  'air mass modification' begins a slow at first turn around to warmer and less dry.

SUNDAY - HAPPY NEW YEAR!: Full 'air mass modification' in  swing overnight Saturday night with Sunday dawning along the East Coast (New Year's Day) near the 70F mark at the beaches.  

Highs New Year's Day in the mid-upper 70Fs with a good southeast wind.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY:  Much warmer again, well above average with possibly 'new record highs' on Tuesday. Only stickler here is a disturbance passing over head on Monday which could increase rain chances Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning in some locations, or even only cloud cover. Will keep watching Monday for chance of GFS is not consistent in how it is dealing with this day just yet.

NEXT TIME TO GET COLD?: Too soon to say. Could be around January 9th or so, or maybe not. GFS trends toward bringing boundaries this way and suddenly dampening them out across Central Florida one after the other. In other words, can't say. The latest GFS run which goes out to the 14th shows that Friday will be the coldest day until then (which will likely change).

No comments: