"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Saturday, December 29, 2012

Weensy Storm Chance but Overall Cloudiness With Frontal Passage

Overall chance of storms today looks pretty slim despite sufficient directional and speed shear across Central Florida with the stickler being lack of a trigger and greater surface heating / lack of low level instability  Regardless, the frontal boundary will be sinking to Central at Prime Time
TODAY: Front will glide into station across Central later this afternoon between 2-5pm on the way to South Florida. There is a small chance that storms could manifest with convergence closer to the boundary, as the amount of bulk shear is nothing to mess with. Supercell and even small tornado parameters are showing up due to the wind fields, but getting a storm to go up otherwise could be a problem. To play it safe, a least we can expect some spotty drip drops around heading south through dark into South Central, although even those could be on the wane as the wind fields shift east and off shore before the front ever gets there, especially south of Brevard or Indian River County.

Frontal passage across Dead Central (as a point of reference) should occur between 3-5pm or so, with dry air intrusion commencing almost immediately. Dead Central, as such, could see rapid clearing an hour before sunset (potentially) and falling temperatures behind the boundary, especially between 7:30 -11pm going into the 50Fs with 40Fs, further south  upper 60Fs and 70Fs remaining until frontal passage.

SUNDAY: Winds NNW and quite cool, with highs central in the mid-upper 50Fs, warmer into the low to mid 60Fs further south, cooler north. Cleared out skies as wind slowly veers toward the north and eventually NNE after midnight.

MONDAY: Have a sneaky suspicion it will become partly cloudy to mostly cloudy near the coast over night Sunday night, such that so ..the lowest temperatures will occur potentially before 9pm Sunday night along the immediate coast before stratocumulus clouds move in. So far, it looks like mostly lower level clouds with maybe some sprinkles eventually spreading across the state Monday afternoon with winds E-ESE and highs in the 60Fs due to cloud cover. At least so far that seems to be the trend.

TUESDAY: Winds becoming ESE, but light, and possibly seeing high clouds move in with time with continued low level moisture in place. In short, high temperatures could be held down because of more clouds at other levels, but good drying is also shown at other atmospheric levels too, so hard to be for certain.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: The next front will have partial origins from the Gulf, with only a slow sag toward the Central Peninsula as it aligns parallel to jet stream winds. It's going to take a while to 'sink in' but once it does someone could get very wet. So far, the GFS is showing measurable rainfall either late Wednesday or sometime into Thursday, but this could again manifest as merely cloud cover. Too soon to say but chances are all of the North half will get wet in some form or another once again.

BEYOND: Seeing as how the next front after today/tonight will partially manifest from the western Gulf region, it will merely act to recirculate air already present in the region mixed with some cooler air from the north  so no big temperature drop is expected. 

After that, only warmer air is seen to  the 9Th of January.

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