"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Thursday, October 14, 2010

Pleasant Weekend State Wide

(This weekend won't require updates for local weather)
SYNOPSIS: A weak cool frontal boundary is currently located just offshore the Florida East Coast from near Vero Beach northward. Further south this boundary becomes difficult to locate, but appears to meet to a weak area of low pressure just off the coast of Ft. Lauderdale. Only a wind shift accompanies this boundary. Cloudiness across Central and South Florida is associated with moisture from the region encompassing diminutive Hurricane Paula (located just off the NW coast of the western tip of Cuba) combined with what appears to be an approaching mid-level wind speed max rounding the base of a mid-upper level trough approaching from the WNW. A more significant cold front associated with this feature is a bit difficult to locate at the surface, but inspection at 5000 ft definitively draws out the front extending from a low over Pennsylvania extending southward through the Carolinas and nearly bisecting the Florida panhandle. The low pressure over Pennsylvania will swing toward the W-WNW during the next 48 hours producing wet-n-windy weather for Northern New England for at least the first half of the weekend.
TODAY: Locally, cloudiness at sunrise this morning exists over Central Florida on a line from roughly extreme N. Brevard County toward southern portions of Tampa Bay, more extensively the further south one goes.  There are some rain showers associated with the cloudiness mainly south of a Vero Beach to Ft. Myers line, and for the most part this will continue to be where the showers will remain today. There's a fine line between where the clouds persist and suddenly cut off. North-Central Brevard on the east coast is on the cusp. South Brevard to Sarasota and everywhere south are well within the clouds and will probably remain there today. Winds should remain from the NW to W this afternoon, although a light NE component could develop close to the coast this afternoon, either way, wind speed will be insignificant. Any rain chances, it appears, will remain south of Brevard in the region outlined by the denser cloud shield from roughly Vero Beach to Sarasota and south through all of the Keys; however, there is a remote chance of a sprinkle along the coast during the mid afternoon as far north as The Cape as the cold front approaches from the west.  Best rain chances overall appear to be down the east coast from Vero to Miami this afternoon. It appears the the main weather change later today associated with the actual front will be clearing sky conditions as drier air aloft penetrates southward from the north accompanied by a more definitive NW wind. Frontal passage will occur first along the Florida West Coast, Jacksonville, to Orlando- the eventually the coast north of Vero by sometime between 4:30pm to sunset.
TOMORROW: Dawn should crack at the face of nearly clear skies across North and Central Florida, with the front still pressing south and east across the southern peninsula. Very pleasant day in store with a NW-NNW breeze and drying air at all atmospheric levels.  It has been quite dry this month, in fact, ever since Tropical Storm Nicole was in the neighborhood. As such, the dry air combined with the northerly breeze will set the stage for possible Fire Watch criteria during the afternoon hours over the inland counties. The coolest air will not arrive until overnight Friday night into Saturday morning, so we could still reach high end low 80s tomorrow under such dry conditions and full sun shine.
WEEKEND: Great weekend for the fair in Cocoa Beach with a north wind and nearly clear sky. High pressure behind the front will pass overhead and eventually into the Western Atlantic by some time Monday. Lows where the fair will be (Cocoa Beach) in the low-mid 60s and a high near 80 both days. Much cooler mornings inland. Looks like Sunday will overall be the coolest of days. Winds should veer to NNE-NE (off the Atlantic) by Sunday afternoon tempering temperatures.
NEXT WEEK: Carte Blanche check signed, "give me more benign weather". Winds will veer more toward the east through Wednesday with modifying temperatures and a gradually moistening air mass approach from the south as high pressure pushes further east and north as yet another dehydrated frontal boundary approaches. Periods of clouds during the afternoons due to day time heating, and perhaps some nocturnal/early morning stratocumuli along the coast with more moisture present. Maybe even a sprinkle along the coast in the day preceding and 'early morning of' the next front which right now has an ETA of very early Wednesday morning. This front, although as equally benign as the one today will be, could be the 'make or break' determinant concerning the weather over Central, and more so, South Florida next week. See TROPICS:
TROPICS: At 7AM bare minimalistic Hurricane Paula was located 45 miles west of Puerto Esperanto, Cuba (just off the NW tip of Cuba), moving NE at 5mph with seemingly 75mph over the water. The storm is encountering shear from all directions via opposing forces, both from high pressure in the Atlantic which is blocking eastward motion and the approaching trough in the NW Gulf of Mexico tearing at the system aloft from the west (these same winds are generating the clouds over Central/South Florida at this time). These winds, combined with the storm's close proximity to the Cuba landmass and its dismally small size will put a demise to the storm in the next few hours. I'd bet the next advisory is no longer indicates a storm of hurricane status...and in 24 hours it will be all but gone. A piece of upper level energy will likely breaking off during passage of the mid-upper level trough to the north which will cross the Florida Straits and the Bahamas, whereas the low level energy and remnant surface circulation could eventually move ESE to SE and dwindle, dousing western Cuba in the process.  The Keys will continue to have a period or two of heavy rainfall, and perhaps some thunder as the moisture from the storm interacts with the approaching frontal boundary in that area through much of Friday.
Elsewhere in the tropics. An area of vorticity remains in the far SW Caribbean and over Central America with a broad area of cyclonic circulation. Another, an more importantly, is another vorticity area approaching the Leeward Islands. At this time, there's only a few showers associated with the second feature. The vorticity will continue to move west and become imbedded within the first area in the SW Caribbean by Monday, and in all probability instigate the initiation of the next named tropical system, "Richard" in the Tuesday time-frame NNW of Panama. This a quite some time from now, and seeing as how this chain of events is only apparently beginning to unfold quite a bit could change.
So, in speaking from persistence of the GFS model: This particular forecast model has been indicating that this transformation in the SW Caribbean would occur for over 48 hours now, and has been fairly consistent on the timing of a Hurricane crossing Cuba sometime late next week. Just exactly when or where will be critical for South, and perhaps Central Florida, when considering the next front to affect the state referred to several paragraphs previously. Since the time of forecast inception, what would be named Richard has taken directly from as far west as across Florida from near Naples to Ft. Pierce to as far west as off the Florida East Coast and across the Central  Bahamas. The latest available run was the furthest east with this system never directly affecting any part of Florida.
In summary, the meteorological community will be approaching Wednesday with furrowed brow of inquisitive interest. No matter how one looks at it so far, somewhere in the Bahamas is most likely to be dealt the Ace of Spaces in a game of Russian Roulette.

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