"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Sunday, June 3, 2012

Chances of Strong To Severe Storms Tuesday and Wednesdeay

In red is where strong storms are possible Tuesday and Wednesday 
TODAY - MONDAY: NE winds coming in this afternoon to cool late  afternoon east coasters. We could see high streams of cirrus clouds all days next week from time to time, and they could be a player and reason for 'downsizing' future forecast posts to mostly cloudiness and light showers all areas except near I-10.  Future forecasts are showing dense cirrus off and on through next week beginning Wednesday or even Tuesday.  There is a small chance of showers along the east coast from Vero And South late in the day on Monday.

TUESDAY: Westerly winds, like Monday, prevail. Warm tomorrow (Monday) like today, but potentially warmer with highs approaching the mid-90Fs many areas especially the further east one gets. A frontal boundary will be draped across the lower SE states. The image above depicts the 'bulk shear' at 20,000 feet. On a summer day we have zero shear aloft under normal circumstances. Shear aids in lift and stronger storms. 

With that in mind, to compare, the GFS plots indicate not only shear will  reside aloft, but there will be a slight  bit all the way down to 2000 ft despite the predominantly WSW-W winds at the ground curving to WNW-NW aloft as can be seen above by the direct the wind barbs point. The temperatures aloft will be colder than on Friday when we had all of the rain as well. So, despite the chance of a lot of high clouds, wind shear and cold air aloft might be the predominant players/factor regardless. Small hair and strong to severe strength straight line winds in and near down pours appears would be the 'threat'.

The other school of thought though, per the NAM, is that the rain chances will remain near I-10, and areas to the south will see highs near 97F as has been relayed here for a few days now. The original train of thought several posts ago if we recall was mentioning  strong to severe storms in the Tuesday/ Wednesday/Thursday time frame.  It is too soon to say how far south the boundary will get, as the the ECMWF brings it much further south with 850mb vorticity streaming across North Central rather than further north. In that case, the strong storm threat would extend yet even further south by Wednesday. Much of the future posts will be weighted toward and through Friday, where a shift could occur, putting the storm and rain threat to an end. 

Queen of the Night Opens to a Near Full Moon. A one night stand.
But again, that is too far out in time to bother hypothesizing on other than that after up to 4 potential days of rainfall and storms, it has to eventually come to an end.  This additionally potential rain chance filled time frame should help put more of a dent in the winter dry period conditions. Brush fires were relatively very few and far between this fire season in the all in all.  

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