"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Friday, October 20, 2017

"Potentially' Active Period Ahead - But Big Cool Down First

TODAY - SATURDAY: Continuation of the status quo in regard to wind as most all of North and Central dry out; moisture still ample for showers, some briefly on the heavier side parts of far South Central to South Florida. Otherwise, slightly above normal temperatures, especially in regard to morning lows along the immediate coast where lows will be in the upper 70Fs along A1A, courtesy of the prevailing northeast winds which are common this time of year up through November. Elsewhere in the state, some 50Fs have already been realized across North Florida that past two mornings.

SUNDAY: High pressure  north of Florida over the Carolina's will lift out toward the ENE-NE as a Deep Layer upper level trough shifts east from the Central Plains states toward the east coast. As a result , flow (surface wind) will shift to more ESE-SE direction over Saturday night through Sunday. Flow that is more from the south will usher deeper moisture northward to Central Florida likely before sunrise Sunday morning. 

Net affect will be increased low level clouds and risk of rain showers up the coast working well inland , especially near and after day break as far north as Southern Volusia by sunrise. Showers, maybe even a convergence band or two (which results in locally heavier rainfall totals) 'might' set up, but better chance there will be apparent random showers working inland from the coast, possibly evolving to 'thunder' along the West Central side of the state later in the day. This moisture will continue west and north into evening and then an interlude of drying could begin heading into Monday

MONDAY: Warm with southeast wind with lower rain chance this day.  

First Cold Front of the 2017-2018 Season on the approach across the Mississippi River Valley Basin, with parent upper level well north up in Canada. Under any other circumstances such a synoptic set up would unlikely ever result in a frontal passage; however, a secondary mid-level low appears will form over Eastern Texas into Louisiana that will provide the extra impetus for the front to make the clean sweep across the state on Tuesday.  

MONDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY: Rain chances increase from Panhandle first then from north to south and west to east. Risk there might be a chance of severe weather but appears to be limited to mainly the Florida Panhandle, with a smaller risk as far south as I-4.  The best rain chances will be associated with a pre-frontal boundary (trough) ahead of the main front. It's affects might be realized on Monday or Monday night but since timing is still an issue simply put it in with Tuesday.

Per latest GFS, the frontal boundary itself is expected to be across Central to South Central (Melbourne - Sarasota line) sometime around 1pm Tuesday afternoon (give or take about 3 hours either way).   (see below). 

Image is showing 'dew point' temperatures. Lower dew points means drier air.

Behind the front, brisk NW wind to be expected. Cold air advection will not be 'truly realized' until perhaps near midnight Tuesday night and especially after 3AM Wednesday morning and beyond. Lows Wednesday east of US1 /South of I4 expected in the lower 60Fs (warmer far south) with interior temperatures running in the mid 50Fs (more or less) (colder North, warmest far South).  

Overall, Wednesday looks  breezy, dry, and somewhat cool , especially considering this will be the first time since last spring to see such 'low' dew points and highs not getting above what would normally be a morning low temperature. 

 Continued breezy all day into Wednesday night under clear skies (remember those?)

THURSDAY: Coolest morning so far of the 2017 -2018 Season state wide. GFS is pulling some mid-upper 50Fs out-of-the-hat all the way to The Barriers with lower to mid-50Fs interior (warmer further south). Chances are it will still be quite breezy this morning and might not get 'quite' as cold as shown over the Barriers due to how warm the surrounding waters are still, but it has happened in the past so could indeed be that 'cold'.  High in the lower 70Fs though, maybe even some mid-70Fs.

FRIDAY: Wind calming down a bit as wind veers more northerly. Along the immediate BARRIERS this will be the 'make-or break' day for morning lows.

 If wind can manage to amass an on-shore wind component over night, Friday will dawn 7-10 degrees warmer than Thursday will. 

Otherwise, another cool morning but with a very quick warm up. By afternoon we're totally 'out-of-the-woods' with this first cool 'outbreak' of  fall like weather.


Eyes on the skies, namely the ones over the Western Caribbean to far Southeast Gulf of Mexico. 

The Canadian Model for three runs in a row is showing a Tropical (Named) Storm System lifting northward across West Central Cuba to impact South/Central Florida by the NEXT WEEKEND ; whereas the GFS instead shows a general area of 'disturbed weather lifting north further to the east over the East/Central Gulf, as supposedly two weak separate surface low pressure areas to move across North and North Central Florida . ...resulting in perhaps severe weather and/or locally heavy rainfall totals over a two day period. The "GFS Signal" looks very strange on paper at least with some of the wind fields being shown, so definitely bears a bit of scrutiny for watching, but with plenty of time to res-position any assumptions. In the end, who knows, maybe it will be all for naught and nothing will be waiting on the wings at all. For sure though if anything does 'come up'..the media will be all over it.

Either way, for now can't hurt to be watching the time frame in the Forecast Realm of Thursday - Saturday as a "heads up". 

In the interim, much cooler weather is on the way!

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