"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Friday, September 23, 2011

July Like Conditions Return On the First Day of Fall

Although anticrepuscular rays appear to converge onto a point opposite the sun, the convergence is actually an illusion. The rays are in fact (almost) parallel, and the apparent convergence is to the vanishing point at infinity.  Anticrepuscular rays are near-parallel, but appear to converge at the antisolar point because of linear perspective. Anticrepuscular rays are most frequently visible near sunrise or sunset. These were observed this morning, but were seen a few other mornings this week just before and during sunrise.

And at the same time as the above image, this storm was over the ocean. Looking toward Canaveral AFS, seaside.

TODAY: Today is the first full day of fall, as of 5:05AM. That might be true in regard to how the earth is aligned with, and rotating around, the sun; but the weather today looks much more like that characterized by a mid-July day. One with plentiful moisture and little to no synoptic scale boundaries. It won't be quite as hot as it is in July, but otherwise all things appear to be equal. And like in mid-summer, outlining any specifically higher potential areas for rainfall is difficult other than the blanket, all inclusive "all over the interior" stand-by.

As of 1pm , the sea breezes have begun per visible satellite imagery. Some showers were ignited earlier due to an outflow boundary off the NE coast in the Flagler County area which moved ashore in that region, but otherwise showers are few and far between. Moisture content today is high (2.00" +), and once moisture convergence begins as the sea breezes approach each other it will be even higher. Steering today is weak, but generally from the WSW-SW at 10mph or less, and apparently restricted to the north half of the state. Toward Lake Okeechobee and South into the Everglades currents are less than 5mph. Showers should start to begin well before the sea breezes meet, but most prolifically after 3:30-4pm. A few more lightning prone storms could form before and during that time, but have the greatest overall coverage and strength after 4pm -6pm.

Ocean showers were lacking this morning other than right over the coast of Central and North Brevard, since steering is no longer bringing them ashore north of Palm Beach County. A few formed within two hours of sunrise, and one was easily visible a full hour before sunrise as the first rays breached the horizon and lit the top of this tall shower under otherwise nearly full-dark conditions still in place while the moon and stars were quite visible even still...

Fairly uniform distribution of moisture and instability with weak steering, especially over the Southern 1/3 to 1/2 of the state. Further north toward Brevard, showers or storm debris could move offshore toward early evening, and perhaps a series of storms/outflows could back build to US1 after 5:30pm, and maybe move offshore north of the Beachline or just maybe as far south as Sebastian Inlet.
 Like most July days, the bulk of activity today will be over the interior, but visible from the coast albeit at a "not so far away' distance. It looks like there should be a good coverage of activity today, and like yesterday some storms could contain considerable amounts of dangerous lightning activity and very heavy rain. With slow storm motion, and with rains likely impacting some of the same areas impacted yesterday, localized street nuisance flooding/puddling is possible. Rains were quite heavy yesterday over the interior at some locations, and some areas received heavy rain more than once. 

Rain so heavy it looks 'bluish'. Note how lush the interior swamp lands are now after a full summer of storms.

Strong storms are not anticipated in regard to winds/hail, but if so would be most likely to occur toward the far north where slightly colder temperatures aloft might exist later today.. the strongest storms will likely occur due isolated/localized mesoscale boundary interactions.  

Storms/showers/remaining light rain pockets could continue in the chosen select areas until 10pm tonight, if not later. The rains today when all is said and done will favor more toward the east side of the state, but most anywhere 10-20 miles away from the immediate coasts could see rain today. The least likely area appears will be over the Western Panhandle, but there too, a strong storm or two could occur but of more isolated nature.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY: So far it appears nothing significant enough beyond what has been written for two days now has changed. Thus, more July like weather. Activity could start a bit earlier on is interesting to be watching this (below):

This area of disturbed weather  has no apparent surface lows, or any lows really although some guidance points to weak cyclonic circulations in the mid-upper levels here and there. Overall, this appears to be deep moisture being rotated around the western and southern periphery of high pressure that extends well out into the Atlantic.  The activity is propagating generally in the direction of the yellow arrows. Even though this is not a 'system', some of the moisture associated with this activity could come in to play over the weekend for at least the South half of the state.
 MONDAY/BEYOND: There is a nearly cutoff low pressure system, quite large, parked over Illinois. This area is quite expansive and Florida is just barely receiving some the mid level circulation around it (hence, the light WSW steering currents in the mid-levels). The surface front from it is almost completely wrapped around the low, but a weak lee side trough has popped up from time to time down the Appalachians, with a more well defined boundary tracking south then almost due west in the Southern Plains.

Most guidance has leaned toward filling the low and lifting it out toward the NE on Monday, while the frontal boundary gradually drops south and east with time into the far Deep South and into the Panhandle of Florida by Tuesday. At that point and beyond it becomes nearly indiscernible and dislocated from the parent low pressure area now very far away,  as nothing more than a gradual change in wind direction and atmospheric drying. 

Thus, by Monday rain chances might be restricted to the Southern Half of the state, but not entirely. There has consistently been a drying out period portrayed, but much will depend on where the boundary ends up over the state (assuming it washes out over the state). Wherever it ends up will end up being a focusing mechanism for moisture convergence so that despite lowered overall atmospheric moisture being infiltrated into the state due to the loss of the tropical connection, there could still be showers and thunder somewhere, apparently the whole way into next weekend. So far, Tuesday seems to be the most quiet day other than the far South and the Panhandle (where the front will reside at that time). The morning GFS of 2AM has the boundary washing out over Central Florida heading into mid-week next week as high pressure moves in to the north and easterly flow returns, but none of this looks particularly legit from a meteorlogically realistic aspect, so the future like all of them....heads toward:

"Live as if you were living already for the second time, and as if you acted the first time as wrong as you're about to act now"

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