"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Tuesday, January 8, 2013

Warmer toward 80F next 10 Days as Frosty Gets the Boot

High clouds will be mostly streaming off to the east today, as low level moisture remains ample in the presence of a near shore coastal trough. The surface front that passed through two days ago is about all but absorbed by the high pressure off to the east of the state. Purple shows zones of isolated rain shower chances about any time, if they can move on shore as they are near West Palm Beach at this time.
TODAY: No more high clouds are foreseen to the west of the state as what is overhead some areas should be clearing out today, but low to mid-level moisture remains sufficient for yet another day or two of cloud cover to materialize around early to mid afternoon. Convergence along a coastal trough accompanied by instability (which is more pronounced in the south half of Florida than anywhere else in the country today but maybe the south tip of Texas)...might provide the fodder for showers. Whether they come ashore north of Ft Pierce is a different matter though, but best not to  "toss the rain-shower chance baby out with the atmospheric bath water"   from all appearances based on steering up through 10,000 ft from the SE before they winds well aloft become SW per the KSC sounding and latest Rapid Refresh model guidance.

Temperatures today and beyond for quite some time will nearly remain in the 70Fs 24/7 right at the beaches to near 82F in the afternoons (especially south of Ft Pierce beaches) and inland south of Orlando region. Warmest interior west side of the state.

WEDNESDAY - BEYOND: Guidance is consistent with drier air in the mid-levels to move north ward from the south to southeast Wednesday morning with the drier air reaching Central around 12-4pm, which means less chances of not only high clouds but also mid-level clouds, aka, generally even more sunny. 

Although a stray, light coastal shower is possible in the wee hours before sunrise, it will be other-weather-wise much more sunny in the afternoons with perhaps some inland fog or low clouds early day given the moist low levels and time of year. Winds to remain ESE-SE for quite some time to come with temperatures well above average through January 16th.

Global Forecast System (GFS) long range model guidance is consistent now with a frontal passage on the 17th which could be the harbinger of an entirely new 'pattern' from the one we are just entering today. 

Whether that holds to form or not is too soon to say. One more day or two of consistent model runs will tell the story. If this verifies, we'll fall back to a pattern similar to earlier cool periods, but nothing drastic such as freezing temperatures has been alluded to.

 Entering in toward late January  or early February, if the jet stream trend on the GFS also continues, might need to be monitoring for severe type weather potential rearing its head, but until that time (if ever), looks like smooth sailing and great January weather as we approach the coldest time of year , one month after the winter solstice

"Hey bud, your block my rays"

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