"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Tuesday, June 22, 2010

Convection Machine Shut Down Has Commenced

(Image: "Pant Alert"! Summer heat and humidity is not well tolerated by our furry friends")

The ridge of high pressure has become firmly established across the southeast U.S. this morning extending from extreme Eastern Texas through Southern Alabama and Georgia, in part, and most extensively into the Western Atlantic and across Georgia and South Carolina. This puts all of peninsular Florida in a deep easterly flow. Drier air resides upstream in the mid-upper levels over the Bahamas and is already moving in to the area.

Thus, for today we can say "goodbye" to afternoon thunderstorms pretty much anywhere along the east coast from Daytona Beach to Miami and east of I-95 as the drier air mentioned above is already evident on the latest KSC sounding data with the PWAT value having dropped to 'non-preciptable' values for this time of least under the current synoptic set up. Drying is also evident on water vapor imagery which is no surprise. This alignment of the forces appears to remain somewhat permanent (or so it will seem) for at least the next 6 days so might as well slop on the sunscreen and squeeze out some lemons.

In summary, no thunderstorms today for the most part. Perhaps a storm or two near the Tampa area or along I-75...but those will be isolated. Even the more favored inland areas will be 'slow' today. Morning temperatures, as noted this morning over southeast Florida, will be around 80 degrees if not warmer every morning along the coast through the remainder of the week, but afternoon high temperatures in these same areas will remain below or right at 90 degrees east of US-1 due to the influence of the prevailing easterly winds off the near shore Atlantic waters.

We might want to start eyeing the region along the Dominican Republic into into the Yucatan Channel for tropical development. Yesterday, the ECMWF model was indicating there could be a hurricane by next Tuesday/Wednesday right over the infamous oil spill region, but that possibility has 'not so miraculously' totally disappeared off the map as of this morning. The joys of 'crystal ball' forecasting at its finest.

The challenge, as it is, of forecasting tropical systems is slowly rearing its pretentious I'm preparing for the over-hyped barrage of "ifs, ands, or buts" to infiltrate every form of media outlet that disperses meteorological information known to mankind during the coming months. Let the rumors and bad information fly out the mouths of folks in the grocery store's all coming. Suddenly it seems everyone is a hurricane expert, including those who probably never take a second look at the sky the remaining 9 months of the year! False rumor alert preparation time.

In any case, for the most part we will have quiet weather for the next 2-3 days almost guaranteed. Will be watching for nocturnal-late morning coastal showers moving on shore later this week..but for the most part even that possibility is looking weak. Expect all kinds of things could be changing by this time next week...which I suppose isn't saying much from a forecasting perspective. But I will be watching for an increase in storm activity, especially beginning Monday over the Central Peninsula...and by then we can take it from there.

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