"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Sunday, July 24, 2016

Chance of 'Strong to Marginally Severe" Storms (Mainly South of I-4)

Towering "Morning Cloud" Hovers Over the Coast - Friday Morning

TODAY Tropical Upper level Tropospheric Trough  (TUTT) Low is slowly shifting east to west 'well aloft' around 30,000 feet accompanied by a tongue of dry air in the mid-levels.  Remarkable PWAT on the KSC sounding this morning down to a rather 'astonishing' 1.09" which is quite low for July. However, if guidance has any credence this measurement was taken at the utterly driest point in time almost possible of the day in regard to the placement of the TUTT low. Some recovery should be going on during the course of the day even as I right with the 'anticipation' we might see a recovery back to not quite July 'normals' in some locations by late afternoon. Will watch for activity across Southeast Florida early on send outflows and mergers both north and west during early/mid afternoon prior to sea breezes setting up and moving inland so that the better clashing of boundaries would occur over parts of Central Florida.

With less early day activities..the peak of activity and the affect of the dry air aloft combined with colder upper level temperatures 'might' result in some strong/marginally severe storms come late afternoon especially interior parts of SW Florida northward toward Polk/Osceola/Okeechobee Counties possible into southern Lake County and even toward Orange/Seminole; but the better chances will be Central Osceola/Polk. The latest NAM is hitting hard on eastern Osceola oddly. There is also a chance some showers might be able to work into the Cape area off the ocean in association with 'said set up' though chance is quite low and remote.  One thing that would preclude any strong or even severe storms today is that guidance implies the pocket of cold air aloft might start to fill in with warmer air (aloft) as the day progresses which would put the breaks of strong storms as well as storm coverage altogether.

Sum total, today is an 'odd ball day at the park' in regard to the summer routine.

MONDAY:  Low will have moved west of the state and lifted north a bit. This will put a brake temporarily on the pattern that has been in place since the 3rd of July even (!) of easterly flow favoring the west and central portions (mostly).. namely though, leaving out the Barrier Islands of Brevard south toward the immediate beaches near Vero of the big rainfall scores. 

Chance of showers mainly but thunder possible 'sometime ' from mid-morning to as late as early to mid-afternoon along the east coast south of I-4 if the GFS holds correct (though other guidance has not been showing this chance will ride with it). In image above  activity now near the western Bahamas might be what will work into East Central sometime tomorrow. The upper low appears to be moving a bit slower than earlier models were showing and should that motion continue timing and placement both of this low is what might end up being the big factor tomorrow in regard to the better rain chance location as well as when that will be.

BEYOND:  Low confidence forecast but appears a  return to low coverage of activity, mainly interior with a few spurious times of coastal early morning showers of unknown days since timing of moisture shots remains nearly impossible to forecast beyond a day or two.

GFS implies a significant tropical wave to approach Florida the end of next weekend toward Monday..that will have to be watched as again, same issue applies. 

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