SYNOPTIC RECAP: The TUTT that was first noted last week north of Bermuda continues it's epic round the clock journey which took it eventually across Florida, into the Central Gulf, and now about to 'landfall' on the southeast Texas Coast. Another TUTT moving along at a good clip was north of Puerto Rico yesterday and is now generally located just NNE of the eastern tip of Cuba and moving WNW. Minimal Depression Bonnie on a downward spiral is approaching the Louisiana coast, circulation seemingly to continue on pure momentum with no punch. High pressure located over the SE quadrant and centered near the Carolinas is also displayed with moisture riding along its crest over the Great Lakes and NE U.S...round the clock well into the Atlantic..with a new leading edge just now imposing on the southern east half of Florida from the east toward a westerly direction.
LOCALLY: Conditions across much of the state are fairly uniform. PWAT is generally just above 2.00" everywhere with a SSE-SE flow from the surface upward throughout the steering column. No triggers are evident to get the show rolling though. Early morning near shore convective showers were widely scattered all along the entire Florida east coast, mainly along and east of I-95 but are waning as we head toward noon.
TODAY: Believe a more deliberate east coast sea breeze will be established shortly after noon which would put a halt to land falling Atlantic showers, except south of West Palm to South Miami. West Coast sea breeze will have a hard time establishing today so folks anywhere west of Orlando will feel the heat, just like before Bonnie moved in (high end mid-90s in many reporting locales). Coolest air will be found east of US 1. Believe that surface winds will be light enough inland though for formation of lake breezes which will be the triggering mechanism necessary to escalate the convective processes necessary for generation of intensifying rain showers into a sparse population of thunderstorms, mainly around the tip of Florida south of Lake Okeechobee then northward along Route 27 and all of those counties toward Tampa to as far east as maybe west portions of Osceola County, Orange County, and all of Lake County later in the afternoon.
It's almost easier to figure the least likely area to get a thunderstorm today, that being all but extreme SW Brevard County, Eastern Indian River and St. Lucie County..and perhaps extreme Eastern Volusia. All precipitation off the radar scope by 8:30pm.
TOMORROW: The TUTT referred to in the opening paragraph seems to be on a motion trend that would take it just along the Florida Straits tommorrow. There will be a period during it's approach that rain chances will be close to "Absolute 0" over a vast expanse of the state, but that will probably be sometime overnight while everyone is asleep.
By Sunday afternoon things aloft will be in a state of "Wind Direction Chaos" with conflicts between the low-mid-upper level direction (not speed) due to passing of the TUTT and attempting re-establishment of our old "Atlantic and now also SE US High Pressure" nemesis...but when push comes to shove tomorrow could end up much like today as we work into the early afternoon time frame..with stress on the word "could". This will require refinement once upper level data is monitored during today and early tomorrow so that a trend can be established.
MONDAY: Transition day toward "Dry Weather Takeover" - less activity everywhere as some drying begins.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: High pressure surface and aloft. Lowering PWATS and diurnal land/sea breeze wind pattern and inland lake breezes. Extremely isolated inland afternoon thunderstorms by day generated by the interaction of the aforementioned breezes. Clear at night.
THURSDAY-NEXT WEEKEND: Way out there. But there are hints that the high pressure ridge across the state will either weaken and split down the middle (over Florida) with the west half retrograding toward Louisiana, or the entire axis will flat out sink south toward the keys. Either way, a trough of low pressure which will be present along the the U.S. East Coast as far south as North Georgia could dampen the spirits of nemesis high and put Florida's East Half in a formidable SW steering current with higher precipitable water values (PWAT) present. This could mean some showers and thunder storms closer to those living anywhere in the eastern half of the state.