"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Sunday, July 28, 2013

Dorian Deceased: Chance of Isolated Strong Storms Today after 4Pm

General Depiction to Show Some Strong Storms (Red) Are Possible,
but not necessarily  as located (above)
TODAY: Mid-level trough axis  in general where the light blue dashes are shown above has some vorticity associated with it. The GFS model continues to show a rather significant (for this time of year under such conditions)vorticity  associated with that trough as it move east today which implies 'energy' to cross North Central and North Florida later today. The RAP model continues to show some healthy upward 'vertical velocities' (VVs) throughout the column from surface upward toward 20,000 feet, although both might be questionable. But given the short term consistency in this guidance, will put the plug out for a heads up that storms could be stronger than normal today just in case. 

Just looking at the sky as of  noon shows a 'crispness' to some of the clouds which could be an indicator of later day activity of more volatile nature. The morning KSC (Kennedy Space Center) weather launch balloon would support west southwest to east northeast (ENE) steering at around 9 -13mph but any storm that by chance happens to grow in strength and density out of character could move a bit faster toward the ENE and the East Coast especially near I-4 toward the Mims area. Some dry slots would support (as shown  in Downdraft Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE)) more isolated activity but with winds, if so, gusting toward 50-55mph with frequent cloud to ground lightning possibly well outside the rain areas. Thus, special heed to late day activity prior to arrival or after passage of rainfall for a lightning threat hazard.

MONDAY: As noted yesterday and as is manifesting now, Monday might be another 'see what happens after today day' as the GFS has shifted a bit and no longer favors the far east side of the state for rainfall hardly at all except possibly with the advent of the east coast sea breeze earlier in the day in isolated locations with steering more into the interior areas.

BEYOND: Guidance heading into mid-range varies and the outcome is contingent with some energy related to Dorian the Deceased. The Euro brings the energy right across Florida whereas the GFS says no dice to that. The GFS appears now would be the more favored option which would mean we'll enter a drier spell east side but wetter period West Central and West coast through much of next week until the next continental trough approaches the eastern U.S. which would then drop the ridge axis south of Central, reversing the storm steering direction. Thus, until we can know for certain what the Rustic Remains of Dorian will do, the future remains more uncertain than usual given the circumstances.

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