"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Monday, February 25, 2013

Storms Remotely Possibly Later/ Temps Go Down Hill Later in Week

Radar around 2:30AM This Monday morning. Most of this action is related to an 'elevated warm front above 5000 feet. Some severe reports have come in from this activity in the form of a few hail reports. Radar now looks not nearly as active in this same area..nonetheless, activity seems to have shifted east more toward JAX '
 TODAY: Really not much change from yesterday's post. To sum it up, it appears a shallow warm front at the surface significantly 'tilt's toward the north with the main axis of action along the 3000-5000 ft level near I-10 as can bee seen above and depicted below

See note above: Could be light showers almost anywhere, but cloud coverage has really put a damper across Central and North Central. REGARDLESS: Wind fields are favorable for  severe weather across the entire south half of the state ALTHOUGH, there is a tornado watch much further north across North Florida. Moisture fields though are pitiful across South Florida to Support storms (so far today)
THIS AFTERNOON: The best instability and wind fields are south of the surface front. There might be a trigger moving in from the west over the gulf which so far, if the model is correct, is showing no action associated with it which makes the model suspect. Regardless, rare as it would be this time of year, with the boundary in place and good heating for this time of year, a shower or even storm could go up under what above is is strong Speed Shear accompanied by some directional wind shear as well despite the presence of high clouds, and rare part being a sea breeze convergence type initiation which is rare for March. The best chance for a strong storm would be after 2:30pm until around 7pm as it looks now though there is no statements out regarding any such chance at the present time, officially.

TUESDAY: As noted in the previous post, a cold front will usher through Central Florida in the late afternoon Tuesday, and so far it looks to go through with little fanfare although thunderstorms I do see are in the forecast (to be forewarned despite what this blog post reads).

WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY: Gradual temperature drops each day with the biggest drops being Friday and then again Sunday. So far, as it looks now, temperatures on Sunday could be about 22-28 degrees cooler than what we saw this morning and are seeing this afternoon, with Sunday readings perhaps not barely cracking 60F north of 528 Causeway (as opposed to the current 85F degrees) which fell due to cloud cover here locally.   The good thing is we will 'slide into lower temperatures' rather than do one lump sum plummet like a crashing stock market over night. 

BEYOND: Continued cool to perhaps cold well into next week until at least the 8th- 10th of March,  Other than in the next two days, little chance of rain is foreseen. There is a chance that some areas along the West Coast going into the weekend will be colder during the day if a more westerly wind component sets up and they experience afternoon stratocumulus cloud decks blocking out the afternoon sun off the Gulf of Mexico. IN summary, if you like it warm, enjoy today through Wednesday. 

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