"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Thursday, September 18, 2014

Cooler with Clouds/ Some Showers/Storms Friday into Weekend

Latest Synoptic Scale Set Up Leaves
Little For Today but MUCH
for Coming Days ahead 

TODAY: Weak frontal boundary lays across South Florida near the south banks of  "The Big Lake Down South" at the surface while higher up the boundary resides a bit further north. As can be seen above, a disturbance aloft is poised toward north Florida initially coming into Friday and then most of the state as follows up settle in. At time, Florida is playing host as a bit of a 'frontal grave yard' with little aloft to set the wheels in motion for storms, abetted by a bit drier air. As a result, today looks like a respite from what could be a bit more of a weathery pattern in regard to cloud cover and potential rain chances. With clearer skies and drier air, warm today but drier, and cooler again tonight by a few degrees.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY: As another front approaches the Deep South and with disturbances aloft already in place superimposed underneath divergence aloft cloud cover should increase as well as shower chances during the day Friday, but exactly when the wheels will begin to set this in motion will be determined as it happens.  The surface front will buckle back north as will the mid level features to north Florida with time, which might take up through late or mid afternoon Saturday.

Before that time with cold air aloft aided by some upper level divergence, suspect guidance might be down playing the rain fall potential, and instead is calling for cooler temperatures as a result of cloud cover and/or evaporative cooling produced by rain that never reaches the ground as a result of over running with easterly surface winds and westerly winds aloft. There could be change over to thunder though south of I-4 on Saturday more specifically as the surface boundary lifts back to the north and winds become more south to southwest.

Also, as these disturbances over run the grave yard, the old boundary  could be 'resurrected' into a surface front with  accompanying low pressure to form over or near East Florida with a trailing frontal boundary across North Central. This boundary might have a hard time sliding south as the upper level support will be pulling off to the Northeast too soon to glide it through.

SATURDAY has the potential be quite 'rainy' at least and cloudy, cooler as a result.

SUNDAY: Sunday remains a bit uncertain with the front still to the north, but also some of the moisture aloft will have been squeegeed out with the low pressure that will be forming, but will it be too much for rainfall on this day? suspect not, but cloud cover issues should be resolved by then.

In the case of continued ample moisture but not over-bearingly so, and cooler air aloft with still some support from the upper levels, thunder could occur mid-late afternoon, some strong...but with warmer temperatures on the ground with the improved lighting conditions aided by low level surface instability.

MONDAY: By late Sunday into Sunday night the next front could be across the I-4 or so but begin to dwindle much like the previous boundary did. How far South it will entertain remains in question and by that time we are at a new week. Suspect it will get a bit further south then Central though the trend so far has been a variation of the past few days resulting in a repeat performance of what has just been described above. Suspect we might see some moisture convergence North Central late day with the next boundary, as the moisture previous works south toward Lake Okeechobee and south region. Another front though is still poised to enter the picture mid-week next week. 

Which means, up and down weather with true fallish like regimes combating summer refusing to let go as evidenced by the strength of the Atlantic Ridge stretching toward Florida Central and South and sometimes North. Could be rains off and on into the following week but it's too far out in time to tell, until we know how strong with greater certainty the next trough coming in on the west coast of the U.S. will be and how far south it will dig next week.


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