"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Sunday, March 28, 2010

Severe Weather Likely In Some Spots Late Today AND Tonight

Image: Forecast for tonight showing two systems that will affect East Central Florida today and tonight

Some interesting weather is in store for much of Peninsular Florida as two distinct disturbances will hit the area. Both will have the potential to produce severe weather across mainly the central portion of the state in the form of hail, wind, and maybe even a tornado. There will likely be some flooding rains as well anywhere from Jacksonville to Lake Okeechobee, primarily along the Eastern 3/4s of the state. Storms to begin first along the west wide near the Big Bend by 2pm.

SYNOPSIS: A trough of low pressure will push across the Deep South during the next 12-36 hours. Embedded mid and upper level disturbances will round the base of the trough and traverse across mainly the north central to south central portions of the state. Accompanying these disturbances will be some very 'disturbed' weather! It's advised that all residents in this area remain abreast of local weather conditions any time after 2:30pm today as conditions will initially change very rapidly as the leading edge of impacting weather reaches the area.

FIRST HALF OF TODAY: Initially high clouds will cross the state in association with the southern branch jet stream. Wind will be ESE-SE gradually veering to the south during the course of the day. Winds will blow at about 12-20 mph throughout the day..even in the early morning. Clouds will begin to increase by mid morning and lower levels clouds formulate with heating of the day. High temperature will be a little warmer than yesterday's local high of only 73 to about 76 today. 

BY 2:00pm TODAY: Some discrete storm cells could form just about anywhere from Lake Okeechobee north to Ocala. These will race off to the NNE at about 25-30mph. Probably only contain some lighting at worst..although if a strong one gets well rooted in the boundary layer small hail would not be out of the question.

AFTER 4:00pm TODAY: By this time the extreme western side of the state and further north will already be under the gun as the first of two systems moves in (in the form of an 850mb vort max in combo with CAPEs approaching 1000 and semi-decent low level instability with a cap that will be weakening by the minute. First it will be Hernando, Pasco, and Lake Counties. Then as things get even closer to the center of the state it will be Orange, Volusia, and Seminole...and eventually mainly the north 1/3 of Brevard County. We will likely be in a severe thunderstorm watch or maybe even a tornado watch by 4pm as well, if not earlier. Keep an eye to the sky to the west or SW. Also note, that ahead of this organized system, smaller discrete storm cells could begin to catch the eye of the radar scope even earlier - say about 2pm as noted above. By 2pm also the sky cover will increase significantly becoming over cast at the mid levels. If this does indeed occur then the storms will become difficult to detect approaching other than an unusually dark appearance approaching from a westerly component direction. Early rain showers will be easier to spot. Expect the worst of weather to hit Brevard County...mainly from Cape Canaveral and points north to Daytona in the 7-8pm time frame and then move out by 9pm altogher.

We might see a lull in the action...with no rain at all for a while. But don't be fooled, yet a bigger system will be on the approach well after dark.

AFTER 11pm TONIGHT: The second system will be on the approach in the form of a 500mb vorticity max with greater jet stream winds aloft. However, instability will be much less than that we will experience from event number 1. Believe the main threat from this one will be strong surface winds, although a brief tornado will not be out of the question. It will approach from the west and impact all of Brevard County initially sometime in the 1-2AM time frame. After the initial impact, it will be followed by a prolonged period of moderate rain which could last well up to sunrise with rain totals approaching nearly 3-4 inches! Thus, flooding of some commonly known problem areas across the state will become the story of the day across all of Central and eventually south central Florida. Temperatures during this time will be in the mid 60s and winds will be SW-WSW at about 10-15mph outside of the heavier showers. The thunderstorm threat though should wane after 8AM.

FIRST HALF OF MONDAY: See above. Morning low will be around 64 degrees with a WSW wind and continued elevated rain chances. It currently appears that the rain will end, at around 12PM -2PM in abrupt fashion. 

SECOND HALF OF MONDAY: Rain to abate but continued cloudy until nearly sunset. Winds will be west at 10-15mph with a high around 70 degrees. The cold front associated with the trough will pass through after sunset...heralding....

TUESDAY: ....clearing skies with a continued west wind and a low of 55 degrees. By mid morning the sky will be clear with a high of about 71. West wind of 10mph.

WEDNESDAY: Clear with a low around 56 degrees. High around 73.

THURSDAY - SATURDAY: Mostly clear to start the period with scattered clouds by the weekend. Temperatures moderating to what one would consider normal for this time of year. No rain chance.

SUNDAY AND POINTS ON: We might start to be affected by another system sometime around late Monday or Tuesday...but that is too far out for any further speculation.

No comments: