|Cape Canaveral Path Early Monday Morning|
TONIGHT-TUESDAY: A frontal boundary now across the Western Panhandle will work south, and as it stands now will not make it as far south as 'Dead Central" or south of there as was mentioned yesterday. Instead it comes closer to wavering near the I-4 Corridor to North Brevard at the surface, but into the lower to mid-atmospheric levels it is titled back to the north such that at 5000 feet the front is still back over the panhandle. Meanwhile, disturbances CURRENTLY emanating off the mountains of Mexico (see second image below) could ride along the frontal boundary to approach Central Florida as soon as 9AM Tuesday morning, but exactly where the front is laying at that time and the strength of said disturbances will hugely determine the degree of rainfall and where it will fall.
The latest GFS (Global Forecast System forecast model) is fairly consistent run-to-run showing a swath of largest totals surpassing 2" over a 24 hour period from near a JAX to CEDAR KEY zone south to a line running from near PT. ST JOHN toward SARASOTA on the West Coast (with highest amounts last run over Volusia and Northern Brevard County close to 3", yet the NAM model shows nothing even close to said amounts).
This is of the classic TYPE of "Central Diving Line" or "Dead Central" set ups that might be evolving (as referred to in these posts) for a strong storm to form along the southern periphery of the heavier rainfall totals demarcation. As such will be aware that though upper level temperatures are not as cold as cold be, the best shearing winds near the surface will be right along and near the southern boundary of heaviest cloud cover and/or rainfall, with the best instability all south of it. As such, will watch the zone where the best wind shear meets the instability as shown below by the purple 'just in case zone' of 'Dead Central" or 'The Central Dividing Line Zone" anytime from between 11:AM Tuesday through as late as 5:AM Wednesday morning (around the time the actual front actually comes through).
The reason for that latter time frame is that the latest GFS shows a very sharp wind shift line and temperature drop with the front (by as much as a 20F degree temperature fall across the boundary) which could make for a quick 'TOUCH AND GO" spin up like 'tornado in the dark' which are but impossible to forecast or foresee outside of near the time and said type of radar return pops up. Chances are no such creature will evolve though.
WEDNESDAY: Rainfall could last off and on as late as around 9-11AM Central even behind the front, but RAPID CLEARING commences with the wind shift so by noon-2pm most of Central would be scoured out by much drier and colder air. It is this clearing that might be the bigger story when all is said and done.
The front is forecast to make a rapid drop from Central Florida to clearing South Florida between 7AM and noon. If so, the warmest time of day will be right near to before sunrise. With clearing skies, recovery into the lower 60Fs is possible though it could also be quite breezy with winds from the WNW-NW at 18 G 28 for a time, especially by the early afternoon Wednesday.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THANKSGIVING: Sunset Thanksgiving eve yields clear or 'near clear' with temperatures in the mid-upper 50Fs with slowly dying off winds from the NW-NNW.
Thanksgiving dawns with lows in the mid-upper 40Fs inland and closer to 49F - 52F along the immediate east coast as winds become more northerly with time at about 10-18mph during the afternoon. (hopefully less!).
BEYOND through Weekend: Wind very slowly shifts around to northeast and eventually east-northeast by the end of the weekend at 10-15 mph, but dying off inland at night where winds will decouple and allow colder overnight lows over the interior zones. Dry but with continued 'below' normal high temperatures and near normal low temperatures. Highs warming to the lower-mid 70Fs by Monday but look to be in the upper 60Fs and lower 70Fs Saturday and Sunday. The next cold front could be another week away going into early December.