"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Friday, February 22, 2019

Unseasonably Warm Through Sunday - Unsettled Next Week

"Jake As Seen His Sunrise and Predicts Another Warm Day At Hand"

TODAY: No different than than the past few days for the most part, especially right along the immediate coast.

 Southerly to southeast wind off a slowly warming ocean (latest water temperature at Port Canaveral has risen from 62F-63F from a few weeks ago to 69-70F as of yesterday) will keep coastal afternoon high temperatures in check toward the upper 70Fs to near 80F with inland and western Florida temperatures mainly in the mid-upper 80Fs. 

Record warm low temperatures might again be broken today and tomorrow. 

SATURDAY: Continued above normal temperatures with morning coastal lows near 70F. 

An area of increased low level moisture is approaching the state as it rounds high pressure east of the state  and is being forecast to ride up mainly the east coast from south to north over night to arrive to East Central Direct an hour or so before sunrise. 

The main impact would be increased patches of cloud cover and perhaps a light low-topped shower. Afternoon highs 'might' be tempered down a bit mainly inland if cloud cover is more prevalent, otherwise, 'no significant changes'.

See below, and look toward the Bahamas

SATURDAY NIGHT: A cold front is approaching the state for Sunday evening : though yet a bit away, slowly veering low to mid level wind fields could result in moisture convergence and lift toward the east coast mainly from near Cape Canaveral northward through Volusia County from near to just after sunset through midnight or points even later; thus, a risk of rain in that area from near dark through midnight. 

Otherwise, no change in the temperature regime.

SUNDAY: WARM. As cold front approaches pressure gradient wind fields at the surface might be great enough to offset the east coast sea breeze. If this is the case, the afternoon high along the beaches will be noticeably warmer, that being, in the mid-upper 80Fs (assuming there is not too much cloud cover) from recent days. 

Areas to most experience this if so would be from near Vero Beach northward through Sanford to Southern Volusia County.Inland temperatures will simply continue to be what they have been for days now (anyway).

SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY: Cold front to drop from north to south toward Indian River County and be strung out from east to west across the state as it is mainly  absorbed into the mean low to mid level flow pattern around prevalent high pressure. 

The only effect of the boundary will be to turn down the afternoon high temperatures more toward Normal values. The immediate beaches will least notice this affect as they have not been AS warm as inland areas to begin with. Morning lows though will continue above normal (that is , in the mid 60Fs as opposed to lower to mid 50Fs). However, it will be breezy at times.

TUESDAY: Little change from Monday as wind will be turning NE-E-ESE-to now ESE-SE, but  decreasing to the 5 -15 mph range . 

Changes will be in the wings from the west however. 

Chances are by later Tuesday toward Wednesday what has remained of the cold front of Sunday evening will lift northward as an amorphous 'warm front' (so to speak) and that boundary could be accompanied by rain chances when that occurs. 

This however, will just be the beginning of series of changes to occur incoming days, if not even the next two weeks as it appears we 'might' be entering a whole new 'regime' or weather pattern .

WEDNESDAY: Surface wind continues to become more southerly as guidance now indicates a series of mid-upper level disturbances to approach from the West at the same time. This is a very difficult to time situation at hand as well as to locate where the most favorable areas of 'rain risk' will occur. For now, there is an implication that perhaps even thunder could be heard late Wednesday over Central Florida, if not at least a respectable chance of rain.

BEYOND: From Wednesday through Friday guidance varies from run to run, and models also vary between each other as to just exact 'what' will happen 'where' and 'when'. But the overall picture being painted is 'unsettled' with an increased rain chance at various points in time. 

Eventually the disturbances (of late Tuesday through Thursday/Friday) clear the area and we resume a new westerly flow pattern with yet another set up to approach in a few days afterward of similar nature. Thus, if the GFS is at all correct that far out (which is highly debatable)...the first weeks of MARCH look to have several offerings of rain chances in store. But time will tell.

No comments: