"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Saturday, January 22, 2011

"Three Front Week" (aka "Three Dog Night")

IMAGE: Shallow surface boundary clearing the state (SOUTH) with upper level dry air already fully in place well aloft. This image shows generally the location of the shallow surface boundary (South Florida) which is dictating the wind direction and slightly dew point air (Central). The low pressure area is shown off to the east of Florida. The true front now approaching is shown solid.

TODAY: Windy this afternoon, with partly to mostly cloudy skies early with rapid clearing to widely scattered clouds within 1 hour of noon time as the second, true cold front crosses first the I-4 corridor and then Beach Line Alley during lunch time, continuing to South Central by late afternoon. In deed it is there, if you have any doubts just investigate the upper 20F degrees morning they had from the Western Panhandle to Tallahassee.

The true front crossing Central around noon time is a reflection of the mid-level trough location as well, and to some degree the upper level one (although slightly behind the former) during today and into tonight. Mid-level speed max of winds aloft round the base of the mid-level trough during the course of the day during the normal 'peak heating' hours of 12-2:30pm. Given the coincidental timing of drier air gradient, peak heating, and winds aloft, (all of which will generate a prime, but brief cold air advection pattern); mid-upper level vorticity (energy) rounding the base of both through early this afternoon through early this evening (which will increase mixing) well as with strengthening of the surface low shown in the image with high pressure building in from the west across the Northern Gulf of Mexico...could be windy today. Wouldn't be surprised to see the wind really start to pick up around 1pm with gusts up to 32-38mph from the WNW-NW for a view hours through 5:000pm, mainly over the intracoastal waterways and near the coast. This is stronger than I'm seeing forecast officially though, but I was tempted to think the wind could get even stronger then this. For now, we'll leave it as "there will be a good breeze today", totally good day for Kite or Para-Surfing.

Temperatures will level off early near noon, if not sooner...then take a couple degree fall after 2:30 pm as the winds filter in the much drier dew point air and flat out colder air as high pressure building in from the west filters those temperatures down from the north along its leading edge.

TONIGHT-TOMORROW: High pressure along the northern Gulf of Mexico and Deep South continues east, then takes more of a ENE-NE trek across South Central Alabama and Georgia tomorrow by which time that low pressure area to our ENE will be totally out of the picture. Additional, the mid-level trough will be lifting back to the north. This combination will relax the pressure gradient and in turn the wind speed significantly, most notably late night and more so after around 3am. Daybreak winds Sunday should be from almost due north around 10-13mph with chilly morning lows.

No change from yesterday prognosis in regards to temperatures. To repeat them, widespread mid-upper 30s Central, near freezing North and west of I-4. Of course freezing far North Florida across I-10, which might as well be known as "The Freezer Door". Secondary cold spot down the Florida Ridge especially to where it tapers off at Okeechobee city and over to the WNW side of the Lake where just above freezing might be felt. Warmer east of US1 from KSC south through far east Brevard County with a low near 40-43F at the Beaches. Warmest of course all locales from West Palm south to the keys. Do we really need to repeat the temperature regime for that area in every post? Fact is, this is ALWAYS the warmest area.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Wind to remain below 10mph all day and gradually veers to the NE during the day under partly cloudy skies. Temperatures comparable to those of today in the afternoon, but with significantly less wind it will feel better to the skin. Cooler tomorrow afternoon far SE and Keys then today's afternoon will feel, considering the peak of cold air associated with this system won't reach down there until after peak heating today. All in all, Sunday will be a nice day.

MONDAY: Still no change from previous thinking. Warmer everywhere, but not tremendously so. In other words, not as warm (for quite some time now), as it was this past week. Lows inland in the upper 30s to mid-40s but closer to upper 40s to low 50s at the coast Monday morning (in other words, maybe just a few degrees cooler there than it was this morning).

TUESDAY and BEYOND: Remembering the discussion about whether the next system would come through around Tuesday with storms or Friday time frame with storms. Looks like BOTH were correct, but minus the storms. Believe at this time the air mass of Florida will have too little time to recover from today's system to support storms for Tuesday's system (not to mention a plethora of other factors that will be absent which would be required for them to manifest).

In fact, the chance of even a rain shower is looking pretty skimpy right now. Again though, 'another front this way comes' (week's end) with again a reinforcement of cool air with barely enough time to recover from that one on Tuesday/Wednesday. Don't see any big warm ups for South Florida either if one is looking for mid 80 degree readings again like was felt down there this past week.

Even anything above 76F at all might be hard pressed to be found anywhere in the state through next weekend. Rain chances look pretty 'weak', but I do see The Weather Channel showing the little icon with a thunderstorm on us for Tuesday, and this is likely seen on everyone's TV that lives in Central and South Florida this morning. I don't believe it though. I'd put a 'Cloudy" icon there instead.

In general, from today and beyond looks like a very cool mornings and mild afternoon temperature regime, predominantly dry. Could all change of course, but "Just for Today". To sum it up, Three Fronts this week: Today, Late Tuesday, Friday.

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