"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Friday, October 5, 2012

Chance of a Strong Storm and 'Big' Lightning Today

This image by no means meant to cover the details, as heavier activity could occur north of Lake Okeechobee (not shown) and pretty much anywhere west of I-95 today except toward Miami (?)
TODAY: Overall today conditions are not much different than yesterday other than that low level instability is not as strong. Winds aloft are light to totally negligent to steering so again it is possible for the atmosphere by early evening to take on a life of its own as was the case yesterday. One location in Lake County received over 6 inches of rain.  Slow storm motion mainly due to propagation and merges could back-draft toward the east coast toward or after dark as the sea breeze wanes especially. In that regard, any coastal location could get a shower or storm after 8pm (potentially) as an odd ball out.

There is a good amount of downdraft CAPE once again, making for questionable coverage (like yesterday). That was the case yesterday as well  and what ended up occurring was good coverage with much lightning activity. A child was struck on a playing field along the west coast. No severe reports (hail/wind) came in however, perhaps lightning made up for the difference.

SAT/SUN: No changes in the mid-term and extended. Rain chances continue in random but wide spread fashion, decreasing on Sunday for the north mainly. High pressure now centered in the mid-levels over Central Florida will weaken as a front approaches, but the low levels will not be so willing to change. 

The next front is shown yet still to never really clear the state as it lifts off to the Northeast while pulling off to the east after crossing most of Georgia. 

Regardless, high pressure behind that boundary will assert a much greater influence over the state by Monday approaching from the West and northwest. As a result, ENE-NE winds will become more easterly into next week late week, with the only effect of said High Pressure being subsidence (sinking of air) and drying out of the atmosphere. This could mean cooler mornings away from the East Coast, but those folks located close to and east of A1A from the Cape and South will unlikely see overnight lows dropping much below 77F degrees with ocean temperatures running around 80-81F degrees and onshore but light winds continuing over night, blowing off the water of those temperatures.  The above image is a GFS surface temperature forecast for Monday Morning where the blues are at , near, or below freezing.

No comments: