"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Wednesday, June 20, 2012

40th Anniversary Hurricane Agnes, Summer, Wet Season Collide!

Track of Hurricane Agnes, making landfall  on the 19th of June, 1972,  40 years ago.  Triangles note some documented tornadoes and their rating, beside the big rainfall totals
TODAY/NIGHT: Summer Solstice is at 7:09PM EDT tonight.The word solstice is from the Latin solstitium, from sol (Sun) and stitium (to stop), as the Sun appears to stop at this time (and again at the winter solstice).
Solstices and the equinoxes this year occur earlier than in any year since 1896. This is because the year 2000, which was an “extra” leap year (the first time in four centuries that such a change was made), combined with 2012, a routine leap year, to create a tweak of time that jump-starts the seasons this year. Makes one wonder about December 21st just a bit more. What they knew, they knew 'something'.. And talking of synchronicity...

Otherwise, above we can see that Agnes made landfall in '72 on Florida not but within 48 hours of this date 40 years ago.  Still recalling the night of the twin tornadoes hitting Cape Canaveral and Merritt Island Airport like it was yesterday. Cape View, Harbor and Coral Drives, the baseball fields, areas where there was only woods (like Ocean Woods , Royal Mansions, not to mention the Selona Lakes area and the Ron Jon's Vacation Resort might have all been in the path of that EF2/3 tornado. The storm lit up the sky in Cocoa Beach like the Fourth of July as I recall at that young age. I was up at the hour, seems to be around 2:30AM, awakened by 'something eerie about the air', as I put it back then the next day.  Watched the lightning from there out the kitchen window in my PJs.

Jumping to the present, water balloonsville. We have the Solstice and what appears to be the first real day of the wet season in progress. Interestingly, it started right on cue last year  as well to the date of the solstice, but in different fashion. It was back then the second latest wet season recorded,   now it has a twin.  Just goes to show, when records have not been around all THAT long, we never can know the vulnerabilities and variabilities that existed  "the other million years" before Florida was inhabited by weather geeks. (if it existed then).

Not going to go too much into weather as all is on schedule with a variably stacked series of surface to mid level troughs creeping northward and up the state. It has rained as far north as Central (see below). And most of the rain today should remain south of I-4 before working further north later in the week.

BEYOND: Will not go into great depth for today. Latest GFS, as opposed to only one run before it, is now showing the potential for tropical storm development in the East Central Gulf region in the next few days , over the weekend. However, word of note, previous runs bring the same boundary stacked up from near Dead Central to I-4 on now three  previous consecutive runs, but never form a low pressure area beyond a potential depression late in the cycle. The previous run tries to form a depression right over Central Florida before turning it into a minimal storm well off shore. 

In contrast, we have that last run forming one to the west. And before both runs, the model showed 4 separate lows lined up along the boundary between I-4 and Dead Central from the Gulf and into the Atlantic. This trough will get so far north before running into High Pressure building east across the South Central Plains in a few days. Additionally, a larger upper level trough is forecast to drop south into the Appalachians region. Between the two of those features to the north, our personal boundary (hey, no crossing the line)...for Florida is essentially a complete and separate entity away from the U.S., continental weather systems.

 Whether it remains that way, or the low pressure area starts to become absorbed in to the trough to the north is yet to be determined, as developments vary.  Keep in mind, NOTHING has even formed great variations  in runs could continue for another 2 days at least.

In general, this shows how the highest level trough aloft is to the north, and the lower in the atmosphere one goes the further south are the trough...which mean it is a sloping upward system, much like a warm front..
Rain showers could occur off and on nearest any of these boundaries. There are signs that activity will slow down quite a bit tonight in most areas, and may not resume so much tomorrow as much as late Friday and through the weekend. BUT, it all depends on the future developments. Another way of putting it, variations have been so great that one area could get between 1/4" to 9" of would not call for anything to steadfast just yet. The only consistent THEME has been for somewhere across  Central Florida (north central , central, south central), could get really nailed with the rains, and potential severe, tornado producing weather in the Saturday to early Sunday time frame. But again, pure 'skeptulation' at this point. 

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