"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Tuesday, January 17, 2017

Warmer Yet Still To Saturday - Severe Sunday Night?

Start of a New Work Week - Sunrise Cape Canaveral

TODAY-SATURDAY: More of the same, more or less, with an above normal temperature regime with an increasingly decreasing chance of shallow, low topped ocean showers near the coast during the overnight to early morning hours as wind becomes progressively southerly come Friday into Saturday. Though, up until that time, a brief sprinkle is possible -- that chance will wane.

Warmest afternoon temperatures inland away from the cooling affect of the near shore waters, with highs in the upper 70Fs to just near 80F or so, while inland highs will reach the lower 80Fs to lower range of mid-80Fs.

BY FRIDAY, even the east coast will begin to get in on the warmer afternoons as well with comfortably cool mornings with a SSW-SW wind developing around this time frame.

SATURDAY: The latest GFS model has been 'Implying" (in varying degrees with each 6 hour run) that there will be the potential for a squall line to form along a pre-frontal trough ahead of a cold front moving from west to east across the Gulf of Mexico, with the better chance of any affected area being near to north of I-4. 

On the other hand, the latest run implies that risk could cover the length of the peninsula.

SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY: Given the POTENTIAL (which as of this time is based only on the latest model run and will likely change around with time)  will at least mention the chance of a Quasi-linear Convective System (QLCS) to cross the state beginning after sunset Sunday night to pass to the east coast sometime after 2-3AM  Monday  morning. 

Though factors/timing are not lining up which would maximize strength, namely in the wind fields and instability (which will be greatly limited ), might expect that there might be more than is being implied. Overall, as being an overnight situation based on current timing , bulk shear in the mid levels might be being 'under estimated' in the model which would compensate for lack of more instability.

Either way, given the latest , might be seeing a Severe Thunderstorm watch, if not Tornado watch issued for parts or all of the state Late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night (first panhandle/north Florida) then further south - though there's still plenty of monitoring time to see what evolves. 

PRIOR to that last model run, thinking (on this end) was for a good chance of rain accompanied with some gusty wind and maybe severe in the panhandle region through the Big Bend (only).  

TUESDAY ON: Regardless, post frontal passage shows west wind for a good two days to follow with temperatures near to just below 'normal'. Not real cold, just cool , ranging through the 50s/60Fs to near 70F for lows / highs respectively.

BEYOND YET STILL: Winter isn't over yet. We could still see some colder spells of several consecutive days as the GFS model and the CFSV2 models are implying, even out to mid-February.  Will also watch for yet another severe potential (if this upcoming situation evolves into one). Such circumstances tend to come in twos or threes spread out from 7-10 days apart from each other, though this year is not an El Nino year which is when that kind of set up might evolve in greater likelihood.

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