"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Tuesday, August 21, 2012

Another Shot At Storms, Better Than Yesterday Central?

Another shot of storms today, might be earlier nearest I-4 and north, with
2 rounds possible East Central Cape South to Ft. Pierce and inland
TODAY: Not a whole lot different than yesterday although South Florida was contaminated by outflow off Cuba from the South overnight which might have stabilized this area a bit much. Additionally, guidance is showing a dry slot toward South Central north of Lake Okeechobee. With daytime heating this could be exasperated and make numerous showers/storms difficult to manifest, although the SE Shores toward Palm Beach county could see something active toward the beaches...this drier slot was the case yesterday across Central portions south of I-4. The past two afternoons have been thrown a bit out of whack by Down Draft CAPE appearing by early afternoon, yesterday quite so much so that storms could only really form along the sea breeze front late afternoon from the Cape and South where convergence was maximized in earnest. 

Different story today as the signal for a good sea breeze is not readily apparent per the mainstream models, but regardless would think it feasible to tack on a sea breeze from the Cape and south where action should be delayed a bit. Showers/thunder could go a bit earlier near the Cape if so, but would not expect that activity if it forms to be the only show in town in that same area later on in the afternoon toward early evening. Otherwise, it will be near and north of I-4 action might get started the earliest.

Further north, with faster steering and deeper moisture one shot at storms might cloud the area over resulting in a rain shield, whereas further south better mixing with the drier air just south of the Beachline across toward Sarasota could result in a training effect, especially wherever that remnant boundary to the south has ended up which I suspect is just south of the Beach line. Time will tell. Temperatures aloft a bit warmer than yesterday, barely so though. All in all, a few stronger storms will be possible if we can get a sea breeze in near the coast. The latest NAM shows one big fat rain blob later this afternoon so it looks like today will be getting sticky after 5pm in regard to storm strength potential (being weak) if so. One other model shows a ribbon of strong storms from near Port St John south toward Vero moving off shore late today, thus the red line indication.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: Another day like today before things change on Thursday and rain chances begin to wane slowly.  

TROPICS: As expected, the tropics are making headlines now. Latest GFS runs since yesterday continue to show at least a strong tropical storm impacting the state of Florida by early next week, with the ECMWF taking a bit longer and stronger with a more western side of the state to just offshore track. Other models show the system missing the state entirely to the east well off shore..with one working the east coast from Miami toward JAX. All in all , then..not much change and expect we will hear everything but the kitchen sink in coming days due to the proximity of the Dominican Republic and Cuba being thrown in to the batter as the Potter's Wheel spins and things begin to mold and brush land-masses throwing a wrench into storm strength forecast determinations all the more heart-wretching.

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