|AS OF 8:15AM Satellite Animation shows a cluster of storms/rain moving ESE steadily in the Eastern Gulf. Suspect it will dwindle but stranger things have happened|
Fairly good consistence is that most concentrations of activity today will be Central and South Florida for one reason and along North Florida for another . That disturbance in the Gulf might in fact be a part of the 'contribution' for this afternoon. A little gift so to speak.
Morning KSC sounding indicated two factors which would spell out near ZERO CHANCE of rain today with a CAP strength of 4 which is unbreakable and convective temperature of 94F. This means one of two things...either a contributing factor is going to replace the air mass or it won't rain today even anywhere near by, OR the sounding messed up.
Model guidance says otherwise though consistently. Rains today, with some possibly strong storms as the sounding came in with -9C at 500mb and around 5C at 700mb which is cold compared to say a standard mid summer day when 500mb might be around -2- -5C and 700mb closer to 10C...
With some drier air around spatially oriented randomly though, any cold air plummeting earthward could produce some hefty winds in initial fall of heavy rain fall and nearby as well. Sea breezes should stick fairly close to the coast north of Ft Pierce in general..but believe also that any sea-breeze will be quite shallow in the vertical depth category given the wind profiles shown at least at The KSC.
Activity should be later today as well if the sounding is reflective of the surrounding areas. Later today could be a bit of an 'adventure' in some areas ..with potent lightning bolts, strong winds, and maybe even a few 'peas or dimes'...if possible.
THURSDAY: Thursday looks a bit similar to today, but time will tell. No two days are exactly the same in this pattern, especially for North Florida where they might have a better chance of storms again tomorrow. Yesterday most if not all the severe reports came out of the North Florida region. Today does not look like that will be the case. Eyeing Central and SW Florida specifically.
BEYOND-THE 4TH WEEKEND: Increasing chance of rain from previous posts. The GFS is shifting gears and not lifting the ridge axis as far north as was supposed previously..and that was for many runs too.
It is now depicting a situation for good sea breeze convergence with a steering toward the east side. Whatever moisture availability there is in the atmosphere come this weekend will determine storm coverage but for now it looks very typical with a 40-50% chance for the forecasts, but that is only at passing glance view for now. Official info is as always from the National Weather Service Offices.