"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Wednesday, July 25, 2012

Warm and Hazy South, Variation of Yesterday Elsewhere

 Taking the camera from A/C to warm humidity late yesterday to capture an image resulted in 'moisture on the lens'. This Cape Canaveral , Florida Arcus Cloud trended toward being a Shelf Cloud due to the close proximity of the actual rain field, meaning little time for outflow separation. Rain field seen bottom right corner of image. Thunder boomed with lightning very near by at this time.

Radar image from Tuesday is interesting. Note how activity hit the sea breeze over the Banana River and quickly 'jacked up' per yellow through red actuals (not drawn in). Most lightning was toward the Industrial Area and the Pads out at the Space Center

TODAY: Somewhat a variation of yesterday mainly north of the Pineda Cswy in Brevard County west toward the South end of Tampa Bay.  The better chance of storms, some quite strong to marginally severe along I-10 and other zones in the Panhandle toward Tallahassee and a bit east of there.

Further South, trough in the mid-levels dropped south just a bit from yesterday but is slowly loosing identity. The axis extends currently along to just south of I-10 but could drop as far south as the Beach Line by 5pm. Guidance is trending that way at least on the short term RAP model, and the GFS from 2AM seems to be hedging in that direction since the 2PM run yesterday. Based on the latest Analysis a good west coast sea breeze appears to be in the making dynamically speaking which would fuse eastward fairly rapidly not unlike yesterday, with the southern end lagging a bit toward North Brevard or even Central Brevard. For now for that entire zone, showers mid-day might be more in the making toward the interior but tough call regarding the thunder here (interior) due to the unfavorable time of day during peak heating when lifted condensation levels are 'normally' a bit 'elevated' as is the level of free convection. On the other hand, with the latter time of the day being preferred the further east one looks, the I-95 to US 1 corridor could be the better breeding grounds for thunder with low level forcing created by the coast hugging sea breeze. For now, It appears it will make little lee way beyond US1 up and down the coast.  Showers and any thunder will roll off the coast uninhibited, with a "Tail End Charlie"  storm possible near the Space Center toward Port St. John,  Port Canaveral and Titusville area across the Merritt Island Wildlife Refuge. It is tempting to draw that zone a bit further north though, as short range guidance waves up and down north and south. In short, it appears it will all come down to timing issues so there is no point in musing further.  Further south, showers and maybe a rumble are possible to Sebastian in quick passage.

SOUTH FLORIDA: Haze appears to have moved in based on satellite imagery and moisture at all levels necessary for storm formation appears to be sorely lacking. However, the forecast office down that way and another office are watching the Lake Okeechobee area toward Ft Pierce to West Palm once again (where some strong to severe wind reports came in yesterday in that county).

BEYOND: Dry air from the North and South closes in as rain chances dwindle to negligible to down right zero  in an unusually dry pattern atmospherically speaking for this time of year except far North Florida toward possibly Flagler County. Moisture rejuvenation begins Sunday toward SW Florida working North and east into Monday when storms could form into Central Osceola County toward Brevard, but further North seems to be getting the dry side of the coin. 

Better rain chances yet still though Tuesday before Wednesday where better coverage in the 40% forecast range might be getting closer to home for most forecast offices..

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