|Bee on Aloe Stalk - This Day last year|
TODAY : Wind becoming more southerly today, mainly ESE-SE and decreasing as we head toward sunset (most notably) and even more so heading toward midnight. East Central has a big 'cloud patch' over it as of mid-late morning (see below) but that might burn off or move out going into early afternoon. A few light showers shouldn't be much of an issue. Had a trace earlier at this location.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY : By Wednesday morning wind near calm or light all areas. Wind was light to calm in some regions of the state this morning but for the east coast. Much less wind all areas all day on these days and from there on out. A frontal boundary will work to North Florida in the morning and enter into Central Direct by later in the day. How far south it gets is still in question. The NAM model never gets it much further south than I-4 whereas the GFS, though it has backed off some as of the 1AM model run, continues to take the front down to the Big Lake region more or less after night fall. Exactly how far it gets will determine where rain chances will remain for Thursday.
For now will go with The NAM (North American Model) which I wouldn't normally due, but suspect the GFS might be latching on to the NAMs notions. That given, with cold air aloft and boundary undergoing frontolysis somewhere across Central coupled with rather cold air aloft, combined with sea breeze convergence with respectable heating of the day, might be able to squeeze up some thunder after all is said and done late in the day somewhere over the interior of Central or South Central depending on where the boundary collapses on Thursday, though more than likely only some showers (or increased cloud cover) would be the net effect. Instability is seriously lacking in any regard either day.
BEYOND: Going into weekend, even if the front does get to South Florida we recover our loses further north in the following 36 hours, and as a result warmer over the weekend with interior highs in the lower and maybe some mid-80Fs with upper 70Fs to near 80F closer to the mark at the immediate beaches. Standard far winds as they become southwest on Sunday ahead of the next front. Chance of sea breeze convergence showers might dwindle for the most part though we might still see some cloudiness as a result of the boundary with light showers possible.
NEXT WEEK: Precision is not the rule of the day yet in regard to when and where, but the trend has been for increasing rain chances as another frontal boundary attempts to make the swoop but can't really pull it off. The trend has been for the next front and the one thereafter several days later to lose steam somewhere across North to Central Florida but that is pure conjecture at this point.
Just exactly where these boundaries find the frontal graveyard to be cannot be determined this far out. Either way, little chance in temperatures from the 'upward to normal trend' is foreseen, even out to around March 14th at least over the past few runs of the GFS. Noting however, that previous runs have showed even a boomerang back to early February like temperatures for a few days, but whether that will ever come into being is pure fantasy at this point in time.