"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Saturday, February 6, 2016

Cool/Windy vs Cold/Breezy Seesaw Pattern Through Wednesday - Rain Chances Today

TODAY: Very sketchy in the details today which will make or break areas in the rain chance (or rainfall totals) arena mainly fast East Central and Southward into interior portions thereof. 

Pre-sunrise temperatures across the state are running along an   anomaly of cooler air in a region such as say interior Dade County than the A1A strip of Brevard County as can be seen in the graphic below. Remember those warmer regions as those might well be where the better chances of rainfall (especially after 5PM will begin later today) might occur toward and after dark.

State Temperatures (at 2 meters AGL) at 5AM show  warmer going from west to East as
opposed to North to South

LATER TODAY: Wind should die down some after sunrise as a low pressure area  forms along the inverted trough exemplified by the temperature and wind profiles shown above. Exactly where and when this will turn into a closed circulation will affect who sees measurable rains today (if any) and who does not. 

It is also noted that where it is warmest now at sunrise will also be the warmest locations all day today for the most part, mainly from east of Orlando and south to around all of South Florida south of The Big Lake, progressively cooler toward the west coast even this afternoon.  

From the west, mid-level low pressure system moving east and north will usher in a vigorous upper level wind field pattern with more than sufficient Bulk Shear and even  helicity (north half) for severe storms; however, instability will be close to non-existent so no concern in those regards. 

On the other hand, with such wind energy aloft coincident with the low forming 'somewhere' along to just east of the South Half of the State, rain chances should increase as those winds aloft move over the state late today into early through late evening. 

Could hear some thunder mainly east of Ft Pierce and South out toward the Bahamas and maybe a rumble aloft as far north as off shore Cape Canaveral, but it will be the "rain chances on the increase" that is primary element for today's composition. 

Totals could vary from none to as much as 1/2" or more depending on where the low sets up later today by the time all is said and done (before sunrise Sunday).

SAMPLE ONLY of what might evolve by early evening.
Noting best chance for measurable rainfall might also be where it is
generally warmest at sunrise this morning . Yellow bounds
indicate where rain fall is also possible.
Best chance though timing wise will be after 5pm - 1AM.

Otherwise, apart from the rain chance today,  the  theme through Wednesday will be cooler to colder temperatures and breezy to down right windy at times through Wednesday.

SUNDAY: Rain chances exit well east before sunrise with cold air advection in full throttle with gusting morning and afternoon wind from the Northwest. 

Mixing  with cold air advection and cleared skies might make for gusts above 25 mph for a time with highs barely eking out of the lower - mid 50F's on Sunday; dying off a bit Sunday night toward Monday morning.

MONDAY: Will watch for a 'cold socket' across Central Florida interior. Wind lighter by far   interior but not so much along the immediate east coast as the strengthening low pressure now far from the state lifts up the U.S. east coast (off shore). Some guidance has been showing upper 30Fs into South Central Florida away from the coasts but warmer than that to the north. Example would be colder inland of Stuart than inland of Daytona Beach.

Another front will be on the way however, overnight Tuesday.

TUESDAY: Breezy to windy at times during the day after a cool start but not quite as cold as Monday morning with highs in the lower-mid 60Fs . 

Wind from the west if not even SW for a time. No rain chances though and probably not many clouds but for a brief period (maybe overnight).  Front to move across the state swiftly after dark.

WEDNESDAY: Monday was the first colder morning, Wednesday will be the next colder morning with the frontal passage going on while most sleep - a bit breezy at that as well. Highs lower than on Tuesday as a result, closer to the way it will be on Sunday.

Pod of Pelicans Soars Past During a Dramatic Florida Sunrise  

THURSDAY-BEYOND: The windy and very cool to a bit cold seesaw shenanigans end Thursday morning as the last of the family of fronts will have cleared the area. 

Slowly moderating temperatures into the weekend with easterly flow becoming established. 

Forecasts will likely be speaking of lows in the lower - mid 50Fs (mainly inland) and highs in the upper 60Fs to lower 70Fs for a number of days to follow, though with the prolonged onshore flow and vertical depth of it over time , showers will come back into the picture by Monday or Tuesday (but light and low topped) , maybe even  for a number of days ..or perhaps it will amount only to decks of stratocumulus clouds. Too far out in time to know.

No severe weather or even a cold fronts for that matter seen for a decent stretch of time,  maybe a good 4 days at least from Thursday through the weekend and into the beginning of the following week.

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