TODAY - MONDAY: Pattern of late continues through week's end with deepening easterly flow. One if not maybe two 'tropical inverted troughs' (acronym omitted) in the next 7 days to slide from east to west across the state with periodic dry slots so timing of precipitation could be tricky on some of the days. Most likely, with the advent of their passage the east coast could see a better chance of overnight to late morning coastal to inland showers with thunder occurring more to the west side and especially toward SW Florida during the mid afternoon to early evening with either one or both of them (if there are two).
BEYOND: GFS has been showing two areas of Tropical Interest. One being low pressure to form over the Southern Gulf near the Yucatan, the other approaching from the Central into the Western Atlantic. Whether one or both of those will even Manifest is still a question mark given how far out in time they are forecast to emerge into the limelight. Meanwhile...
TUESDAY: The first Cold Front of the Fall Season impinges south affecting much of the country with much cooler to cold temperatures to near Freezing especially around the Great Lakes - but for Florida , Southern Texas, and Southern parts of the SW U.S. (for the most part in general). Not one, but perhaps a second 'slider' to re-enforce the situation.
By Tuesday thunderstorms could become yet more numerous for the entire state ending the current pattern in place entirely, to be closing in on even the east coast barrier islands or close enough for caution. Some of those if the GFS is correct could become borderline severe if the GFS trend continues with cold air aloft and stronger upper -mid level winds in place...but getting ahead of one's self. One if not both fronts are currently forecast to meander 'somewhere' across the state, but at this point the guidance shows only a very broad indiscernible boundary with SW winds in the mid levels making for continued thunderstorms area wide unless the front pushes through with greater certainty and drier air, though at this time, not expecting that to be the case. This should be expected given how far out in time this period is, details lacking greatly.
MEANWHILE: Over the Far Southern Gulf and the Western Atlantic Guidance has been showing for 3 runs two emerging situations as shown below:
|TWO CLOSED LOWS PER THE GFS MODEL BY "NEXT" SATURDAY |
WHICH IS TOO FAR OUT IN TIME TO BE RELIABLE
Thus, this Particularly Messy Situation is in both (1) model guidance as well as/ and/ or (2) increasing chances of more rainfall on top of already damped grounds from an already good wet season in place. Any tropical entity to actually cross the state or near it with a respectable impact if even in regard to rainfall even if indirectly would only frustrate the situation in underground water table levels.
In short, could get interesting over Florida in a variety of ways in the last half of September.
|Keeping Awake To What The Future Holds|