"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Friday, April 12, 2013

Chance of Isolated Strong Storms Near the East Coast , Warm and Breezy

As noted above with quite a few conditional caveats
TODAY: Dewpoints in the 70Fs !! Zephyr Hills last hour had a dewpoint of 77F degrees with other readings ranging mainly from 70-74F along and south of mainly I -4 and north along the east coast. Compared this to winter dew points  ranging in the 20Fs-40Fs most often.  SSW-S winds could become breezy into mid-afternoon, more so than currently near open waters. The Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) right now is the highest we've seen in months since last year approaching 3000-3800 J2/kg2 per SPC surface mesoscale RAP formulae (in winter it is less than 500) with lifted index around -7 to -9C (in winter it might be -1 or -2C), and low level moisture continues to stream north from the SSW; however, there is quite a mid level dry slot in place as well over all but SE Florida  and the panhandle area last hour. That, accompanied by cloud cover from storms well out in the Gulf could shut off the caboose on the storm train today except from near Ft. Pierce and south, but last hours satellite loop does not indicate any thickening will occur, if anything, the clouds appear to be thinning or at least trying to. Additionally, temperatures although very cold now are shown to warm later in the day which would offset the mid level lapse rates currently in place. Still, mid-level dry air accompanied by down draft Cape with little convergence boundaries might make it difficult for storm to initiate without a good trigger.

Thus, this post is a worst case scenario, but things might not materialize hardly if at all except toward SE Florida.  The strongest storms though should be those that are on the move to get off shore the East Coast, Mainly near or just north of the Cape area and south, especially near any NE slated Lake Shadow near or just south of Vero Beach to Ft. Pierce, and then on the other side of the shadow effect near West Palm Beach and south toward Ft Lauderdale . Should said storms develop, especially after 4pm -5 pm, gusts to 50mph are possible and pea hail momentarily. The conditional caveat, of many, is that guidance indicates instability will decrease after 2-3pm as winds remain from the SSW-SW without a sea breeze element for low level convergence playing into the mixture. However, areas near Brevard might start playing with a parallel-side shore element to those winds which could make things a bit more interesting as any storm might develop. It could be that strongest activity would not manifest, if it does,until off-shore. Guidance suggests the further inland activity though will be from Ft. Pierce and South.
Again, as it stands now, this is the worse case scenario. It is possible there will be very little activity, especially Central FLorida.l

TOMORROW: A frontal boundary from the NW will lay out across Central Florida near the 528 Beachway or just south of there toward Vero Beach during the day and then begin to lift back north toward I-10 over night into Sunday.  This boundary could act as a focal point for showers and some thunder anytime almost after noon time on Saturday through Sunset, or simply instigate a lot of  bugger cloud cover. Continued warm, tempered down by clouds. Also, quite muggy once again almost like summer, but not quite that muggy.

SUNDAY/BEYOND: Thunder looks to be in the equation, especially for parts of Central and North closer to the boundary which will remain north. On a course of uncertain time, likely by Wednesday, the moisture surge will end and things will dry out. Most activity should be a bit inland west of I-95 though except perhaps one of those days and be fairly isolated except during the 5-8pm time frame in a few areas north of Orlando and SW toward south Tampa Bay or Sarasota area where west coast sea breeze activity could rumble along.

Otherwise, warm weather and more moist for the most part is in the picture into or near the last week of April. Looks like we can tuck the muck- (bad) lucks  away and winter scarves and hoodies. Summer isn't far away now.

SIDE NOTE: The hottest potential time of the year is from mid-May to the first 10 days of June. During this time is when it is most likely, if it's going to, that Florida sees its upper 90F to lower 100Fs readings, which means one month from now or so. This never happened last year but did the previous two years. 1997 and 1998 were also a big years for the heat. 

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