"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Saturday, November 8, 2014

Rains Possible Tonight Through Sunday (w/Some Thunder Possible)

Radar at 5PM - Area South of Yellow Line is for mostly Sunday (additional rain chances possibly all day)
NOW LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Area of mostly light to moderate rain is encroaching on the west coast while convergence near the east coast is setting off some convective low topped type showers late this afternoon from West Palm Beach and north to the Cape area. Though these showers might end after night fall, the main area of interest will still be on the approach.

Latest guidance shows increasing bulk shear and much higher helicity values in the 0-3KM layer near Tampa Bay and south spreading east overnight. A focus for 'elevated thunder' in the presence of cold air aloft along the old frontal boundary now running from near Mims toward South Tampa Bay could act as a catalyst for storms especially as upper level winds increase after midnight through Sunday morning (see between red lines below). Over-running wind profiles just north of this boundary could also set up a cause for some larger rainfall totals further north toward I-4, but no two models agree wholeheartedly (thus, only potential) on any of the aforementioned scenarios, with the better bet being rainfall (possibly briefly heavy at times).

SUNDAY:The ECMWF model seems to coming out the winner on the overall set up regarding rain chance duration as the latest NAM has been running along side it per other discussions being read. If so, that means rain chances could continue south of I-4 all through Sunday with a better chance of thunder South Central mainly, with some pretty strong vertical velocities showing up near and north of Lake Okeechobee in the afternoon to early evening hours. Low pressure off shore Brevard could give cause for some wrap around rain chances well into Sunday into Sunday night as well.

MONDAY: Any rain chances to remain will be almost all east of I-95 and will end by mid-morning at latest if not much sooner.

BEYOND: Cooler mornings with NNE winds, with overnight lows in the mid 50Fs in the interior and west but much closer to 67-72F along the east coast from Brevard County and south through the keys. Afternoons in the mid-upper 70Fs warming to the lower and some isolated mid 80Fs (away from the immediate coast) by Tuesday through Thursday as sky conditions will be much improved all areas by the time Monday ends.

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