"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Friday, February 1, 2013

Pleasantly "Cool" Through Monday, Long Range Warm Trend

State Temperatures Around 6:30AM  this morning. Note that the warmest readings are along A1A from the Cape and South through the Keys
(which is the 'normal' winter layout on drainage flow mornings with little wind)
TODAY: Mostly sunny and on the slightly cool side, much like yesterday overall . High clouds over the Panhandle likely keeping morning lows warmer there than would otherwise be the case. Noting that Okeechobee not too long before sunrise was 37F degrees, a good 15F degrees cooler than Cocoa Beach well to the north.

The coolest air was near Ocala toward Inverness and Crystal River. Strongest wind was reported over the eastern most Barrier Islands of Brevard County (but possibly at other locations that do not report further south along the intracoastals) due to surrounding water and mixing of warmer air above those waters. Those winds will likely abate by mid-morning at the latest. Chance of a thin veil of cirrus clouds by noon time or so, which could easily go by unnoticed to the casual non-observant but make for a nice sunset.

SATURDAY: Similar conditions, although morning lows might be 'upped' a few locations. Light east wind near the beaches with highs in the mid-upper 60Fs.

SUNDAY: Another front will skirt by around midnight Saturday night, shifting winds back to the WNW to NW resulting in a Sunday morning temperature regime similar to this morning; yet, it appears Sunday afternoon will be the warmer of the next 3 days as air remains dry and 'heights' of the higher standard levels of the atmosphere used by meteorologists and model guidance begin to raise. As a result, the following fronts and associated low pressure systems will pass so far north of the state that the fronts will have a hard time reaching as far south as I-10.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: Similarly very cool mornings like today, with warmest mornings also patterned out like as shown in the image above. Morning lows will quickly warm after sunrise all days though, especially on Tuesday when highs will get into the low-mid 70Fs (especially away from the beaches Central and North Florida).

BEYOND: The GFS Model trend has been calling for light SE Winds and morning lows at the beaches in the low-mid 60Fs by Wednesday next week and beyond, with interior areas warming into the 50Fs ranges. Afternoon highs in the mid-upper 70F for many days, at least a week and remaining dry. The same model also shows (though) some increased moisture and rains, perhaps by a greatly weakened front trying to come in 'the back door' at some point in time, but given how far out in time that is will disregard for now. And, if even so, that front has little to no effect on temperatures.

Otherwise, that model has been fairly consistent that no big fronts or any for that matter beyond the one this Saturday Overnight until mid-February. We will, by then, be approaching the time that any long lasting truly 'cold' days falling consecutively one after the other grows ever increasingly less likely as well. May be looking at a frontal boundary falling stationary 'somewhere' across the state with much better rain chances  but that seems a bit unusual for February at any time in the month which has been

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