"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Tuesday, October 23, 2012

Large Sandy (Beaches) - GFTropical Storm/Hurricane Statements :Could Be Necessary for Florida

GFS SURFACE WINDS from the 2AM EDT model run for Thursday at sunrise toward afternoon into Friday. Red COULD end up being Hurricane Watch or Warning zone, and Yellow 'Storm" zone. Too soon to say, way too soon...more below...
TODAY through WEDNESDAY: Not much to say   through these days as conditions with easterly winds and temperatures in the 80Fs by day and 70Fs by night continue. Some showers have moved in well South of Brevard, but not one model anticipated them...they appear to be low topped. Such will the case, increasingly so into Wednesday though, but nothing out of the usual. Best chances of showers going into Wednesday and cloud coverage off and on south of I-4.

BEYOND: Guidance across the boards shows a very very large tropical system named "Sandy" to lift north across Cuba   late Wednesday...after passing over or near Jamaica as a Tropical Storm. Consensus as of this morning indicates Sandy will become a Hurricane north of Cuba over the central Bahamas as the storm lifts north, but the clincher in those regards is just exactly how for west the storm will be at that time.

This is imporant relative to the Florida peninsula early on for the U.S.'s first dibs on the storm in regard to the region mainly from Brevard and South to Miami and far SE Florida. Tropical Storm force winds 'could' occur as Sandy skirts by along a part or all of that zone..or if the storm is further east, none of it. Worst case scenario is showing minimal Hurricane strength from West Palm and South mainly along and east of I-95.

The ECMWF (Euro) model no longer has the storm as close to the coast as previous runs have indicated,  but one other model has it a bit closer than even that shown in the image above; whereas, this is not in general  the case with others.

Whichever one model looks at , regardless, it can be assured this storm will be keeping forecasters busy up until it is assured the storm will clear all of the U.S. east coast which right now seems to be 50/50.  If the storm comes closer to Florida chances become greater that the U.S. Northeast states will be in for a very big storm. On the other hand, if it progresses too far toward the east while lifting north too soon...Sandy could well miss alll of the U.S. entirely.

Either way, big waves and dangerous rip tide conditions are a guarantee beginning late Wednesday through Saturday at least for the Florida east coast.

Rainfall, on the closest path, is most significant from Southern Volusia and south, and most impacting from West Palm Beach and south. On the other hand, if the storm skirts further east, we might not see a drop.

Speculation will abound today most assuredly, but until the storm is north of Cuba for a good 6-12 hours it might be best not to jump the guns, for that is all it is, speculation. In that light, have in mind if one especially lives right on the coast east of I-95 or even US-1 from Brevard and South to consider bringing in yard furniture for a worst case scenario . 

Wind direction is all important as well. Strongest winds in a worst case scenario will be NNE to NE. At this time, there is no official word from the Hurricane Center regarding Florida, thus, these words are obviously only for informational purposes. Use at your Own Risk (if there is any to be had.)

Image of Cape Canaveral Beach at Sunrise

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