|GFS SURFACE WINDS from the 2AM EDT model run for Thursday at sunrise toward afternoon into Friday. Red COULD end up being Hurricane Watch or Warning zone, and Yellow 'Storm" zone. Too soon to say, way too soon...more below...|
BEYOND: Guidance across the boards shows a very very large tropical system named "Sandy" to lift north across Cuba late Wednesday...after passing over or near Jamaica as a Tropical Storm. Consensus as of this morning indicates Sandy will become a Hurricane north of Cuba over the central Bahamas as the storm lifts north, but the clincher in those regards is just exactly how for west the storm will be at that time.
This is imporant relative to the Florida peninsula early on for the U.S.'s first dibs on the storm in regard to the region mainly from Brevard and South to Miami and far SE Florida. Tropical Storm force winds 'could' occur as Sandy skirts by along a part or all of that zone..or if the storm is further east, none of it. Worst case scenario is showing minimal Hurricane strength from West Palm and South mainly along and east of I-95.
The ECMWF (Euro) model no longer has the storm as close to the coast as previous runs have indicated, but one other model has it a bit closer than even that shown in the image above; whereas, this is not in general the case with others.
Whichever one model looks at , regardless, it can be assured this storm will be keeping forecasters busy up until it is assured the storm will clear all of the U.S. east coast which right now seems to be 50/50. If the storm comes closer to Florida chances become greater that the U.S. Northeast states will be in for a very big storm. On the other hand, if it progresses too far toward the east while lifting north too soon...Sandy could well miss alll of the U.S. entirely.
Either way, big waves and dangerous rip tide conditions are a guarantee beginning late Wednesday through Saturday at least for the Florida east coast.
Rainfall, on the closest path, is most significant from Southern Volusia and south, and most impacting from West Palm Beach and south. On the other hand, if the storm skirts further east, we might not see a drop.
Speculation will abound today most assuredly, but until the storm is north of Cuba for a good 6-12 hours it might be best not to jump the guns, for that is all it is, speculation. In that light, have in mind if one especially lives right on the coast east of I-95 or even US-1 from Brevard and South to consider bringing in yard furniture for a worst case scenario .
Wind direction is all important as well. Strongest winds in a worst case scenario will be NNE to NE. At this time, there is no official word from the Hurricane Center regarding Florida, thus, these words are obviously only for informational purposes. Use at your Own Risk (if there is any to be had.)
|Image of Cape Canaveral Beach at Sunrise|