"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Monday, July 7, 2014

Early Onset of Showers/Thunder Possible South Spreading North/Inland

"Sunrise Sateen" 

TODAY: No point really in beating a dead weather pattern, as little change is noted in general from yesterday. Very little in the way of land breeze at time with light and variables abounding in the wind department most areas. A cluster of showers with some audible long lasting rumblings from off the east coast developed before 5AM as skies were rapidly clearing over the  peninsula. With a good sunny start to the day, ample heating and plentiful moisture forecast with Precipitable Water (PWAT) at 2.00" or more over Central Florida showers could get going over Southeast Florida by late morning toward noon (if not sooner) and spread northward along the incoming sea breeze front with other showers developing along the west coast sea breeze. 

Guidance has been showing though that 700mb temperatures might be slightly warmer today , but when all is said and done the primary things to watch for is localized 'flooding' in poorer drainage areas (esp. where it has already poured in said areas in the previous two days).  With such high atmospheric moisture content and little in convective inhibition, suspect that any decaying shower will leave a cloud debris field intact, resulting in a clouding up pretty quickly through mid afternoon in many areas. The area most likely to receive a stronger storm or longer lasting heavy downpour will be an inland location that is last to cloud up and therefore destabilize the most and would by and large also be the location where the sea breezes are most likely to meet.

POSSIBLE locations where heavier rainfall totals could occur today or a stronger storm or two could occur (that would be after 3-4pm)
TUESDAY: Only a slight variation of today with activity having a progressively more difficult time reaching the immediate east coast beaches (the Barrier Islands of Brevard for example) as steering weakens and early onset of sea breezes both coasts commences. Tuesday could still be wet in many locations though, but with the more obvious synoptic scale change not really occurring until late Wednesday into Thursday.

BEYOND: So far, Friday through Monday appears could be a different story from the past weekend for the far east side, that being, much more dry with early onset of sea breezes and cooler as a result, at least at the beach, as the surface ridge axis shifts toward North Florida closer to I-10 as opposed to being located along the latitudes of Lake Okeechobee.  Additionally it appears that in this more easterly flow coming up, chances of some 'dry slots' will be more prevalent, resulting in day or so of much restricted activity favoring inland (isolated) and toward the west side of the state.

" Our Ship Has Come In "

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