|Sunrise Thunderstorms East of Florida This Morning|
TODAY: A state divided with further complications. A tropical wave over South Florida with abundant moisture and a high energy vort max from the Continent at the base of a large upper level trough approaches, so far, unseen due to lack of moisture further north. But, it will run into ample moisture toward mid-late afternoon across South Central Florida.
SOUTH FLORIDA: A dampening out tropical wave containing abundant moisture is washing across South Florida south of Lake Okeechobee. Showers and some thunder began fairly early there as a result. Little is happening further north. Storms might let up for a short time early afternoon, but pick up again as a disturbance approaches from the NW-WNW aloft most directly entering Central Florida.
CENTRAL FLORIDA: Isolated Storms, but they could be strong as a large disturbance begins to move in closer to the peninsula this afternoon. Moisture in the atmosphere is very low north of the Beach line, but there is just enough to maybe squeeze out a storm toward DAB or JAX if the timing is right, but it will be late.
Further South toward the Beach Line, what remains of the old boundary of the past 5 Days has pushed south and is aligning very close to the jet stream flow aloft to move in as the day progresses. Moisture is just enough to squeeze out some storms, and with the winds aloft forecast to be in the 40-60 kts range, combined with the upper level vort max (shown below) this might not be enough yet to trigger storms alone. It does look however, like a storm or two could get going on the NE side of Lake Okeechobee, which like yesterday, would send an outflow boundary northward to meet up with that old mid-level boundary referenced above. That boundary has been the cause of storms for several days now..and this might be its last shot.
Surface winds north of the lake are forecast to be quite light and variable in the lower levels of the atmosphere after good heating has set in and breaks down the light NW flow now in place as I type, so a light sea breeze should initiate by 2pm ...coming off of warm and moist ocean water temperatures above them. There has been some drying in the atmosphere mostly north of Ft Pierce/Vero...so this area north of Vero will have to wait until late as the sea breeze is in place for a few hours to get things going - timed with the upper level disturbance..as well as some colder air aloft in the mid-levels that comes with it.
If things play out just right in the timing of the disturbance, late time of day after sea breezes have come in to play and the Lake Breeze, and any outflow from the south...any storm or three to go up toward the Beach line and south in Osceola County and north of the lake could be strong and hold itself together to the coast. At one point storms might become almost scattered in nature right along the boundary after 6pm . Again, it could end up being later. Guidance portrays rains in those areas as soon as 4pm..but I'm hedging toward later, as has been the case the past 4 days...other than an earlier storm toward Ft. Pierce and maybe working toward Sebastian Inlet.
This was my line of thinking early this morning. This satellite water vapor image shows the storms that were ignited during the predawn hours along the boundary that seems to have shifted south. There is an apparent low pressure circulation east of JAX as well today..that area is forecast to drop south a bit during the day and maybe even back in toward the coast toward 6pm, thus, a storm could occur near JAX and DAB closer to that boundary along which some atmospheric moisture which would have to converge along it.
TUESDAY: There might be an isolated storm once again east central, but if so..early. Otherwise, it looks more like far SW Florida will have the rain chances later on Tuesday and Wednesday.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY: Maria is supposed to have moved well north and east of the state, and will leave a weal mid level trough behind along the East coast from just of JAX to off the mid-Atlantic. High pressure building in across the east tier of states is forecast to recirculate moisture along the trough into JAX and eventually further south heading toward Saturday. However, at this hour the storm is nearly stationary and is being sheared apart. Will it maintain? So far the models have been saying 'yes' in some form or another.
SATURDAY/BEYOND: Winds become more easterly to southeasterly, and advect more tropical moisture into the state heading into next week. At which point, rain chances could be in place each and every day toward the end of the month. The Tropics from the eastern Gulf, all of the Caribbean, and toward the Bahamas will need to be watched during this time frame for development, especially heading toward the end of next week.