"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Saturday, October 6, 2012

Chance (?) of Very Strong Storms Today, Frequent Lightning

Mesoscale Analysis Graphic From the Storm Prediction Center website based on RAP Guidance shows upper level divergence and stronger winds aloft (which coincides with morning actual soundings from KSC/TPA, JAX) over the Gulf. Issue today could be cloud cover in some areas which might burn off quickly in the next few hours, and a convective temperature at KSC way up at a hard to attain 92F . Especially if storms form over far west Florida and spread high clouds eastward.
TODAY: There is a chance of severe storms today, although no formal outlets are relegating this potential officially, so in regards to a mere blog post that comment should be taken with a grain of salt. 

Temperatures aloft are cooler than the past two days and jet stream level winds down to the upper most portions of the steering level are twice as strong than the past two days as well, which leaves for good 'evacuation ' out of the top of the storms for breathing room. BUT, underneath those winds lingers substantial cloud cover mainly north of the Beach Line zone ('Dead Central Dividing Line' often referred to only in these posts). Instability is in the same range as two days ago nearly so, with CAPE already up to a 4000 in a small area near Gainesville per KSCs Local Data Integration System plots, which completely conflicts with the NAM guidance showing less than 500 J*2/kg*2, so have discarded that guidance entirely.

Activity could form very close to the east coast by early afternoon, and early outflow from that activity might very well stabilize locations close to those showers and/or earlier day storms... particularly south of Brevard toward Lake Okeechobee (Vero south to West Palm Beach ). Most models are placing late day rains along the WEST coast though, but propagation changes everything, which appears would be from the northwest, which is what the below image is at least taking into consideration.

Winds below about 9000 ft are very light, so sea breezes should not have a problem developing. Much of how those develop and how strong they will be is largely contingent upon how well inland temperatures can warm and where that will be. Suspect that perhaps all of dead Central might end up being the 'zone' to watch, but graphics in this post do not really capture this essence other than shown above as a starting guessameter. 

The downfall per KSC for strong storms, or the state having a hard time getting started, is that the KSC sounding shows a convective temperature of 92F. This is possible inland once clouds clear (I suppose), or that temperature might have been a morning glitch which could easily no longer exist. So to play it safe will call the wild card bluff today to play it safe in the 'heads up' department. 

Will add that the High Resolution model is showing only storms over Brevard County today, as of a run three hours old.

The other thing to watch will be that if a good cluster-age of storms can amass toward Ocala (in general) outflows could propagate toward the South and east toward the Palm Beach County area later today as far north as the Cape area. This might all be made up for though in terms of rainfall totals rather than strong to severe storms, but it does look like at this point there is no reason not to discount the potential at least for gusts toward 65 mph and small hail after the first couple storms get going and their subsequent outflows interact.  

SUNDAY/MONDAY: Not surprisingly, the GFS is holding off a bit in the longer ranger into early next week on frontal passage, awaiting instead for it to occur once a secondary front only now coming together well to the north to press on east and south behind the eroding first boundary moving toward the Appalachian Chain and into the Deep South. 

Thus, rain chances now go into at least Tuesday..and might be even longer. Sunday looks a bit like today in regard to parameters as does Monday. Low pressure over the Caribbean is conflicting with frontal passage, acting a bit as a block..with a continued moist low but light easterly flow 'hencefromforthethishly'. Therefore, showers are also possible overnight and early morning mainly near the east coast, but isolated into Tuesday.

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