"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Friday, July 29, 2011

Mostly Dry, Uncomfortably Warm - Tropic Highlights

Exact location of Tropical Storm Don at 10AM EDT per Google Maps and the Hurricane Center's determined coordinates for the storm. Note that it is entering shallower shelf waters, likely very warm, and could organize a bit, but further strengthening is not really expected since the longer it is over water the more shear the storm will encounter both from the west and from the north due to shearing winds originating from those directions. Wouldn't be surprised to see it get a little more of a boost in the next 6 hours though...but the central pressure really has not changed much since yesterday.

TODAY: Pretty much we can sum it up by saying , "very warm especially west of I-95 to the west coast, and dry except toward the Panhandle and maybe along the SW Florida Coast with low topped showers there up to Tampa Bay. Only thunder is expect along and south of I-10 west of Jacksonville..and maybe a brief thunder near Tampa Bay late today toward dark."

HEAT: High pressure at the surface and mid-levels, as well as the upper levels over much of the SE has encompassed the Cotton Pickin' states...and the heat is even affecting our Founding Fathers at D.C. Very dry air has impinged on all but extreme North Florida..other than at the jet stream level. Expect that thin high cirrus clouds will pass overhead all day, almost unnoticeable until about 2 hours before sunset. Otherwise, cumulus clouds across much of the state will progress west with temperatures inland in the mid-90Fs. Dew-points will lower during the day due to evaporation, but remain elevated right at the beaches next to the warm ocean waters. In fact, dew points and ocean temps will be pretty much be one in the same at the beaches along A1A. High heat indices from 103F -112F are possible from Melbourne Beach to East of Kennedy Space Center with only a light onshore wind, maybe picking up some after 6pm. Inland heat indexes will not be quite as high with the lower dew points, but the ambient 'real' outside air temperature will be in the mid-90Fs regardless. Some temperatures along the west coast south of Tampa could reach the upper 90Fs. Overnight lows tonight along the immediate east coast from Port Canaveral to Miami might record near record overnight warm overnight lows will essential equal the ocean temperature...and in some cases..also equal the dew point temperature as was the case at Patrick Air Force Base this morning with 82F/82F at 7AM.

RAIN: In a nutshell, today through Mid-day Sunday will be dry other than an errand shower coming off the Bahamas and heading toward the Ft. Pierce toward West Palm Beach area mainly later at night through very early morning. Otherwise, best rain chances will remain along the immediate Gulf coast from Naples to Pensacola. The Keys should also be able to get into the shower activity as well. 

Things will begin to change a bit by Sunday evening toward the interior counties and into Volusia County and north on the East Coast. Even more so on Monday with showers and thunder spreading into Northern North Central Florida and down the interior and west side Monday evening.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: Best chances for showers and thunder almost state wide, exiting the east coast in some locales north of West Palm Beach toward sunset with the majority of activity near or just east of I-95 except toward North Brevard and north to JAX where activity will more readily depart offshore.


TROPICS NOW: Tropical Storm Don is moving WNW toward the southeast Texas coast. Based on current projections and actual motion on loops, Don should be making landfall near or just north of Port Mansfield in Kenedy County. This county is almost completely uninhabited, part of which is composed of Padre Island. But do not focus on the center of the storm, since a vast percentage of the storms arena of action is located south of the storm's 'center'. Thus the areas of South Padre in communities such as Brownsville, Port Isabel, and Raymondville will bear the brunt of heavy flooding rains and thunderstorms. This is also a fairly highly populated area for how remote it is. Don will encounter additional shearing winds aloft as it moves onshore, and the forecast calls for dissipation within 48 hours after landfall, but I think the actual dissipation will occur within 12 hours...but moisture and rain will linger for quite some time although this is even debatable. Texas dry air might just soak the storm up like a huge 'state shaped sponge'.  

BENEFITS: The biggest 'benefit' I believe from Don will be found with the storm combined with the actual synoptic scale (large scale) pattern over North America. In essence, this pattern with Don's moisture could bring much rain to Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, and Utah going into late weekend and next week. Texas proper does not seem will benefit much at all where the rains are really needed toward Abilene, Lubbock, Midland, areas for instance. However, these 'benefits' might also be a curse for some areas in the form of Flash Floods in those areas prone. Most folks who live there know of these areas well in advance..and are often marked in the bigger cities.

Here is DON. The center is about where that white "L" is noted. It is moving WNW.
Believe it will make landfall around 10:15pm CDT...tonight...although if it turns more toward the W-WSW landfall
could be as soon as 9:00pm CDT tonight.

TROPICS BEYOND TUESDAY: Outside of Don, there is a tropical wave well south of Cuba which will be located off the coast of South America to possibly approaching the Bay of Yucatan tonight. This is having little impact to Florida other than toying with the low level winds in the South Half of the state at the surface today through early Saturday. There is a much more organized area of low pressure well to the east of this wave though...which definitely bears some casual observation as we approach the middle of next week.

Again, as noted our best chances for the most widespread rainfall will be Tuesday and Wednesday with less so on Monday..see above as noted in the prelude discussion.  The next system, as was 'feared' in regard to forecast consistency, is going to prove to be a big thorn in the side as we move into Thursday and beyond. 

By that time..and probably before then, this system appears will become a hurricane.  Earlier guidance has indicated that the storm (assuming it is a strong storm or hurricane as now expected) well as the biggest and truest to form storm of 2011, would be forced toward the NW-N - NE well east of Florida..east of the Bahamas, as it encounters the upper level trough off the U.S. east coast on Thursday (the one that will bring the state rains Tuesday and Wednesday, in part).  That trough, plus the upper level ridge of high pressure aloft are what would encounter would steer it far away. The latest run of the GFS now shows that the storm will created its own little 'couplet'...that being, a ridge of high pressure preceding it. This would essential negate the affect of the negative impacts that the larger high pressure circulation would have on the storm..and thus allow it to continue east to ENE toward the state of Florida (initially) and the Bahamas. Whether this latest run was just a hiccup anomaly or something based on reality simply needs to be monitored heading into next week.

I have left any discussion for local weather after Wednesday out, because our weather will depend almost completely on how strong and in which direction the system is focused on heading after Wednesday. The closer it gets to Florida and the Bahamas, the more the rain chances will go down...especially right along the East Coast. On Thursday..the west 1/2 of the state might not be phased at if heads on an ENE track. On the otherhand, if it starts to curve on Wednesday night..then the entire state will still be game for rains.

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