"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Thursday, August 6, 2009

10:30AM (UPDATE)

(Photos are from 11:45am today over Cape Canaveral. The top right one is a circumhorizon arc. Google search that term for more cool photos of them)
Nothing much significant to add from the 9:00AM post. Latest models that I use for the short-term have completed running through tonight and they vary fairly significantly as far a rain coverage, timing, and location is concerned. SURPRISE. Latest sounding out of Tampa reveals that the 850mb ridge axis is almost due overhead now, so I don't think we're going to squeeze another thunderstorm day out of this east of I-95 after today. Temperatures aloft are only moderately unstable and steering winds are so light from the S-SW that propagation, seabreeze, and outflow boundary interactions will dictate storm 'motion'. Storm strength will be light to moderate with maybe a strong one or two thrown in, but the main threat will again be blinding rain and water ponding.

Of the three main models used for today, including the local WRF, I'm hedging toward a blend of the WRF and RUC. By the way, the RUC is now breaking out rain by 1-2pm (earlier run didn't break it out until nearly 6pm) but the local WRF is not. The NAM seemed overdone yesterday (for yesterday) and for today as well, but has eased off a bit. Regardless, it is being discarded.

What this all means is, there will be some earlier convection again but a tad further south than yesterday's. After that, I'm hedging toward where the WRF picks up, which is that all the activity relocates just west or along I-95 and spreads its lovely anvil debris across the coastal locales. Oddly, the WRF does not break out precipitation further north but rather in the quadrangle area of Osceola, Brevard, Indian River, and Okeechobee Counties. It then propagates north up the seabreeze spreading anvil debris along the way over the coast and killing all prospects. The only decent thing about this prospect is that this doesn't happen until after 4pm , thus leaving plenty of opportunity to head toward the Fish Camp off 520 or into west Osceola county from an given locale (causeway) in Brevard.

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Thursday, August 6 (9:00 AM)

Another beautiful morning in Cape Canaveral. Went to the beach to shoot photos. Please note that a follow up forecast/analysis will be posted between 11am-1pm.
The two strongest storm'ie' systems this morning were over W. Central Kansas and the Florida Keys which I thought was pretty interesting. Can sum up today pretty easily...not much change. The Tampa sounding hasn't come in yet nor have the 12z runs, but 00z models are fairly consistent with each other so far in the mid-term, whereas short changes are inevitable.

The difference locally this morning is that there is more activity over the Atlantic than yesterday, but this will have no affect locally. Winds aloft change little in speed or direction today (they do increase a tad at 25,000 ft) and moisture at all levels will remain abundant. Expect sea-breeze onset between 10:00-11:30am with the ever present coastal activity to begin within 1-2 hours before/after that.
Worthy of note, the RUC is not indicating any pre-seabreeze or initial seabreeze activity along the east coast today (but the NAM is), but rather leaves it all for sometime after 2:30pm, so that will be interesting to see which one verifies. If it does initiate there is always the remote possibility of a funnel along or near the intercoastal/coast. Was looking pretty good yesterday shortly before noon but no cigar. We might be better off if the early stuff doesn't initiate, as that seems to kill coastal instability from the get go leaving mid-high cloud grunge.

Storms will again have a hard time making it east of I-95 later in the afternoon although some of the stronger ones will make it in strong format to US1 (based on consistency of the past few days). Strongest activity to reach the east coast will most likely be from Titusville and north. Not expecting any severe storms today but rainfall totals might add up once again as they did inland yesterday. Not all the CoCoRAHS reports were in yet last I looked, but radar estimates confirm that indeed the heaviest rainfall yesterday was right along I-95 and west (except again...N. of Titusville where it made it to the coast). Inland totals were 0.5" to just over 2" although TV last night mentioned some totals over 4"). Most coastal locations received a trace or less. I'll check CoCoRAHS again before making the late morning/noon forecast update.

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