"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Thursday, August 6, 2009

10:30AM (UPDATE)

(Photos are from 11:45am today over Cape Canaveral. The top right one is a circumhorizon arc. Google search that term for more cool photos of them)
Nothing much significant to add from the 9:00AM post. Latest models that I use for the short-term have completed running through tonight and they vary fairly significantly as far a rain coverage, timing, and location is concerned. SURPRISE. Latest sounding out of Tampa reveals that the 850mb ridge axis is almost due overhead now, so I don't think we're going to squeeze another thunderstorm day out of this east of I-95 after today. Temperatures aloft are only moderately unstable and steering winds are so light from the S-SW that propagation, seabreeze, and outflow boundary interactions will dictate storm 'motion'. Storm strength will be light to moderate with maybe a strong one or two thrown in, but the main threat will again be blinding rain and water ponding.

Of the three main models used for today, including the local WRF, I'm hedging toward a blend of the WRF and RUC. By the way, the RUC is now breaking out rain by 1-2pm (earlier run didn't break it out until nearly 6pm) but the local WRF is not. The NAM seemed overdone yesterday (for yesterday) and for today as well, but has eased off a bit. Regardless, it is being discarded.

What this all means is, there will be some earlier convection again but a tad further south than yesterday's. After that, I'm hedging toward where the WRF picks up, which is that all the activity relocates just west or along I-95 and spreads its lovely anvil debris across the coastal locales. Oddly, the WRF does not break out precipitation further north but rather in the quadrangle area of Osceola, Brevard, Indian River, and Okeechobee Counties. It then propagates north up the seabreeze spreading anvil debris along the way over the coast and killing all prospects. The only decent thing about this prospect is that this doesn't happen until after 4pm , thus leaving plenty of opportunity to head toward the Fish Camp off 520 or into west Osceola county from an given locale (causeway) in Brevard.

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