"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Sunday, May 27, 2012

Florida SE Georgia to Get Sub-Tropical Storm" Beryl'd "

“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information such as the National Hurricane Center and MIA/MLB/JAX Local Forecast Offices for this 'event' ”
TODAY: As most of you reading this post already know, Sub-Tropical Storm Beryl is forecast to move toward the Florida/Georgia Border today. Guidance indicates the exact Center of the circulation or 'pseudo-eye' to make landfall just north of Downtown JAX toward the GA Border around 7:30-8:30pm tonight. The above image annotations are based on latest GFS Guidance and a bit of the latest Rapid Refresh guidance. It should be noted that neither model shows directly at the surface winds of sustained storm force except toward the far SE South Carolina Coast toward all of the Georgia Coast, it is the winds at 2000 ft, that guidance and satellite derived wind speeds show sustained 40-45kts (50mph), which could easily be brought to ground level in rainstorms. Do note that the color scheme in this post is much smaller for the entire area under the official tropical storm warning. Beryl is currently moving over the warmest ocean waters associated with the Gulf Stream, so further intensification after 2pm seems unlikely. We'll see what the next 2 official bulletin releases will relay to the masses from the NHC (National Hurricane Center) in that regard.

The extended track of Beryl per the GFS, which has been consistent, weakens Beryl during the early hours of  Monday after the entire circulation is fully on land, as the center works toward Tallahassee. It then continues to weaken and slowly responds to lowering mid-upper level 'height falls' ('troffing'), getting lifted out toward the ENE-NE, later on Monday. 

Sunrise visible satellite image with blog
 guess track through Wednesday
Thus, the heaviest rainfall totals all in all directly related to Beryl should be along I-10 near and in the TLH forecast area. The latest GFS takes Beryl , now a sub-tropical depression toward the coast of South Carolina and then it becomes absorbed into a developing trough and frontal boundary, quickly becoming Extra-Tropical by Wednesday. The jury is still out on this portion of the track through. Should Beryl move offshore sooner to the south and east, re-intensification could occur. Either way, it becomes Extra-tropical, named or not named.

In regard to the remainder of the state, rain chances will persist through Thursday or Friday, possibly Saturday far South Florida. Here is a quick summation of each days' potential TYPE OF WEATHER outside of the Beryl Zone and into the Monkees in a Barrel for starter wags.

TODAY: "Another Pleasant Valley Sunday, in Status Symbol Land". Chance of showers and thunderstorms beginning near noon along the east coast from Brevard and North, expanding with day time heating. It could actually be HOT today with west to WSW winds and moisture only truly creeping toward the west side of the state through late afternoon. Winds becoming more southerly toward South Florida outside of the circulation of Beryl. A weak trough could form extending from the 2000 mb low from JAX SSW toward Orlando and SW Florida with storms forming EAST of that trough. Best chance of storms seems to be Eastern South Central and South toward Miami, with a potential secondary area over Brevard along the southern fringes of the actual Beryl Circulation. Things change though a prelim. heads up in the meantime.

 as Beryl crosses warmest waters
The GFS has been very consistent with showing the largest rainfall totals outside of Beryl to be over the Barrier islands of Brevard due to early chances, and what appears to be back building of activity trying to exit the east coast into late evening at least.  

Additionally, the deepest moisture (precipitable water values) of 2.00" plus are expected to be contained from north and/or Central Brevard and north by sunse within the storm's actual circulation. Whether that activity will remain a hair-line fracture just offshore from Volusia through Brevard will have to be seen, as it is a very close call. So far, the past 6 runs of the GFS has shown only Brevard 'east of and along US1' to get in on the rain action as of the 2AM GFS run. Otherwise, stronger storms near SE Florida for Dade, Broward, and parts of Palm Beach Counties, but more of diurnal nature.

Rain chances continue past midnight , mainly east side of state Central and North Central into the "Storm Zone along and near I-10" .  Another point to make is that a some time between tonight and Tuesday an area could be 'dry slotted', meaning having little to no chance of getting rain, somewhere between Central and South Central more than likely, but just exactly where or even if so is  the proverbial "TBD". 

MONDAY/TUESDAY: Beryl weakening and on the way out, with diurnal shower and thunderstorm activity working toward the east coast during the mid-late afternoon hours. Essentially, these days will be like a summer day favoring the east side of the state. Winds mainly from the south to SSE (at the beach), at normal strength of any given summer day, not a big deal. Stronger winds in and near thunderstorms.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY/(FRIDAY): Chance of stronger to near Severe in isolated cases East Side of the state, especially north of Vero Beach as the heights aloft at the 500mb level (millibars or near 20,000 feet above ground) continue to fall and temperatures aloft get cold as Beryl has by now departed. Stronger winds aloft pull into station as well, whereas prior to late Wednesday they are pretty much non-existent.  Thus, on one of more of these days residents could get Barreled by strong winds and small hail due to stronger winds and colder air aloft. Wednesday has been a 'clincher'  "So Far that is" for several model runs now due to a departing 'pseudo-frontal trough' extending southward from Beryl across North and Central Florida.

Otherwise, yes, even South Florida gets in on the action with stronger storm chances as well. 

Thursday, looks like an even better chance of sea breeze convergence, cold air aloft type storms state wide once again, with many areas getting rain.

In regard to day time highs. Today should be the warmest afternoon of all, as temps go. That being, once the moisture associated with the weather system is in place, afternoon and late morning cumulus clouds could form and hold temperatures down a bit. Although, that too could be in questionable. If the latest info I see showing high Lifted Condensation levels materializes, cumulus could be 'put off' to much extent until after 2-3pm, in time for day time heating. In short though, highs won't be beyond normal, and nothing like the 100F degrees at Tallahassee and upper  to mid 90Fs experienced as far south as Tampa yesterday afternoon.  

 SATURDAY: Cold front clears all but possibly South Florida for a last go around of storms there, otherwise...high pressure builds in across the SE States and a dry period ensues...with comfortable temperatures.

No comments: