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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

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Wednesday, May 24, 2017

"Risk' For Severe Weather Through Early Thursday - Could Wet Season Begin Next Week?

Current Storm Prediction Center Forecast (SPC) Valid through 8AM Thursday Morning.  Area  in-between the 'orange arrows' for blog purposes only
 (and at time of 'certain' interest only to the blogger for future reference

TODAY: As of 8AM EDT the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) based in Norman, Oklahoma has 'upped the ante' on the 'Potential' for severe weather today in parts of Florida which could occur at various times (even into early Thursday at this point)  All modes of 'severe' are possible which would include wind gusts of 58 mph or great, hail of 1" or great, and a few tornadoes.

As of earlier today the greatest risk is across North Florida where at 10% tornado risk area has been sketched out. Their forecast will be updated again by 2pm this afternoon   A Tornado Watch is also  in affect as shown below.

The greatest risks are for 'severe category' winds and 'weak tornadoes'. See graphic and color coded key to the graphic below.

Though there is only a small amount of activity currently at time across North Florida (including a tornado warning at time of typing) it is expected that radar will look significantly different (much greater coverage of storms) by all model  in the next few hours toward noon and early afternoon and work south and east with time.  

In fact, in just the hours between 7AM and 10AM it has increased GREATLY. Earlier there was but one or two storms across North Florida. However, as of 10!5AM...the radar now looks like as shown below with the tornado warning shown along the NE Coast.  

Compare as seen below the difference of over only the course of three hours.

Radar at 7AM

Radar at 10:15AM

EARLY-MID AFTERNOON: By this time a new SPC outlook will have been released. Latest HRRR (high resolution rapid refresh) model runs have continued to imply areas over almost all of Central Florida, especially east central, could begin to see showers or even some thunder to develop rapidly and move offshore as winds aloft will increased along with the wind shear aloft and increasing helicity values as well. Some could start to form prior to noon time in isolated fashion and are not at first expected to be a 'threat'.  

Strongly suspect another Tornado Watch will be issued to cover the regions south of the current watch to as far south as a line toward Martin or St. Lucie County if not the rest of the state.

In summary, best option for the reader is to 'tune in' to local television broadcasts or whatever resources have proven to be most effective and efficient, such as your NOAA Weather Radio. Seeing the TV radar and hearing the analysis of what is being shown is worth the while, and would be advised (if possible) beginning early afternoon. Channel 7 usually does a good job but any channel will do.

Early Morning Depiction of the 'Sig Tor' parameter on the HRRR model.
Since that run these values (see color coded index) have decreased a bit but the general location remains the same .  Areas all the way down to South Florida are also at 'threat' going into the over night hours.
This could all change , however and as such
is not in the forecast from the SPC, at least not as of 8AM

OTHERWISE: Going into tonight, especially after 500PM things could really begin to 'ramp up' for all of Central South of I-4 and north of a Vero Beach to Punta Gorda line. 

The 'window of opportunity' appears to be rather long (up to 6 hours) for more than one event in any given area. 

Some areas will have a decent shot of rain more than once, as a result, going into Thursday morning when all is said and done right over the worst drought stricken areas even. A plus there.

AFTER THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND: Dry and pleasant with warming temperatures into the weekend. That is to say Friday - Monday. By Late Monday a new song might need to be sung for the beginnings of a more wet period per the last few runs of the GFS model.

TUESDAY- SATURDAY NEXT WEEK: Though this is too far out for accuracy's sake, it is being implied that another upper level trough will attempt to dig down the east half of the United State though not nearly to the degree as it will be doing so in the next 24 hours including today (and will be the cause of the Potential Severe weather being forecast).  

Regardless, with warming temperatures, ample moisture, sea breezes in effect and the climatologically favored time of year for the wet season onset, all parameters so far are shown to be in place for the chances of showers and storms in the afternoons mainly over the interior but even close to either coast (at first the east coast, then later the west coast) as time wears on. This will need to be revisited however for consistency during the next couple of days, but if so it looks like the beginnings of a slow but sure wet season pattern, which might come and go for several days at a stretch. Not unusual.

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