(Image: Here I am running for cover in Garden City, Kansas. Toto was no where to be seen)
SYNOPSIS: Pre-frontal boundary that passed through around midnight, instigating a severe thunderstorm warning for most of Central Brevard County, has weakened and is well south of the area. A cold front extending south into the East-Central Gulf of Mexico (GOM) is moving rapidly east and will be nearly overhead around the 2-3pm time frame. DLM (Deep Layer Mean) ridge of High Pressure to dominate the local area by late afternoon through mid-day Sunday.
TODAY: Temperature at 7a.m. a sticky 68 degrees under cloudy skies with a light WSW wind. Expect that with some stronger sun light that the clouds will begin to break up in the 10-11am time frame and at the same time the wind will pick up out of the west at 15-20 mph. Any additional rain to fall today will be ahead of the actual surface front, but south of Brevard County. More like across the east half of the state from West Palm Beach and points south. Given (hoping) the clouds to clear for the most part NLT (no later than noon) we could easily get up to 79 degrees today (plus or minus 2 degrees). Would be nice to actually hit the big 8-0 though! Approaching, passive in nature, cold front will be overhead by 2-3pm..and pass on east and south through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening. Wind will shift to west or WNW and lighten up.
TONIGHT: Seasonably normal low around 58-60 right along the coast and a few degrees cooler west of the Indian River. Stacked DLM Ridge extending the whole way up to Canada will move over head and be our weather maker for all of Saturday and the earlier portion of Sunday as yet another in the progressive train of storm systems enters the southeast U.S.
SATURDAY: As stated above, seasonably normal temperature wise to start the day with just a few scattered clouds and a light north wind. Wind will quickly swing around to the NE and eventually E or even ESE by sunset and blow in at a 12-18 mph pace. Unfortunately, such a wind direction / speed will harbor entrance of that seemingly "never going to go away" cool ocean air that's residing above the even cooler ocean waters. Thus, even though the morning will be normal temperature wise, the afternoon will continue its pace of being 5-8 degrees below normal.
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY AFTERNOON: ESE-SE wind to start the day at 7mph to pick up to the 9-14mph range by 10-11am with variably partly cloudy sky conditions. Low right at or slightly below 60 degrees along the coast and a notch cooler west of the Indian River once again. A plethora of cloud types at varying heights to paint the sky throughout the day...but increasing significantly by early afternoon. Probably not so great a day for the beach, but no detriment to other outside activities. Surface winds could get a little hearty though over the open Atlantic and River(s) waters...creating less than ideal boating or related activities. High in the low-mid 70s close to the coast and mid-upper 70s west of I-95.
SUNDAY NIGHT/ALL OF MONDAY: Thickening cloud cover and an approaching frontal system might again yield some significantly strong thunderstorms with the primary threat being wind. It appears that a squall line of sorts could formulate which would harbor some healthy downdrafts in the heaviest of rain laden sectors of the line. Lightning is a given should such a formation take hold. Remember the DLM Ridge I pointed out that will affect us Saturday? Being as it is a DLM Ridge..it won't be too eager to move out..but will only edge slightly east into a position in the Western Atlantic. It will hold its ground for all of Monday..which will prevent what will remain of the convective boundary to move out any time soon. As a result, things could act like a clogged up sink Monday..with moisture backing up over the area resulting in continued elevated rain chances with maybe even some embedded thunder. But most likely just rain. Temperatures as a result of the rain will be right around 70 degrees but rise a few degrees during non-rainy times.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: Gradual clearing as the DLM ridge releases it''s grip and scoots yet further east and out of the picture..thus declogging the 'sink" (Florida) and allowing the trough to pass right on along as well, taking the rains with it. Another ridge to building north from the south and hold tight for quite some time to come.
We will be hearing about all kinds of severe weather occurring in the Plains and the Dixie region, particularly in N. Louisiana, most of Mississippi, S. Arkansas, and western Alabama a few times next week. But the ridge that will build over the area could very well continue to hold fast. As a result, those storm systems will be forced to ride up and over the ridge...that is..into the Great Lakes/S. Canada. We could very well remain dry initially with temperatures right at seasonal norms for low AND high readings for a change...for the first time in a very very long time. Finally!
For now...be on the look out during the very wee hours of Monday up through sunrise. If anything active is going to happen that will be the time, as inconvenient as it is. No rest for the weather weary! At least not in the middle of the night.